Electronic terminals in South China enter off-season, spot market transactions are sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on June 23, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened slightly higher and maintained high-level consolidation, eventually closing near 263,000 yuan/mt, up 1.17% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): Retail sales of narrowly-defined passenger vehicles in June are expected to reach 2 million units, with new energy vehicles expected to reach 1.1 million units (bullish ★). (2) Tesla signs contract for its first grid-side ESS power station project in mainland China (bullish ★). (3) Beijing: Supports game companies in enhancing R&D efficiency through computing power construction, large model deployment, and data governance, offering rewards of up to 30 million yuan (bullish ★). (4) National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): As of now, this year's trade-in policy for consumer goods has driven sales exceeding the total of last year (bullish ★).

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is tightening. As June progresses, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: Following the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, with some producers experiencing a drop in operating rates. Electronics industry: The electronics end-user market in south China has entered the off-season. Coupled with high tin prices, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting immediate needs. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc., remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot Market: Market feedback indicates that high prices have suppressed restocking demand, with downstream enterprises mostly choosing to deplete inventories or purchase at later prices. Downstream purchase willingness is low, with transactions primarily meeting immediate needs. The daily average shipments for most traders are only 10-30 mt, concentrated in the lower price range.