Guinea's Weekly Bauxite Port Departures Decline Significantly MoM, with Rainy Season Impact Expected to Gradually Emerge

SMM June 22 News:

According to data from June 20, the total weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 4.2009 million mt, a decrease of 38,000 mt from the previous week. The total weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports in Guinea were 3.0638 million mt, a decrease of 1.0108 million mt from the previous week. The total weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports in Australia were 132.43 ten thousand mt (1.3243 million mt), an increase of 286,900 mt from the previous week.

The rainy season in Guinea typically lasts from May to November, with the impact being more pronounced in July and August. As we enter late June, the impact of Guinea's rainy season on shipments is expected to gradually become evident. However, the impact is anticipated to be reflected in domestic port arrival data starting from mid-to-late August at the earliest. Coupled with the impact of the earlier Guinea mining rights incident, by August, the domestic bauxite market fundamentals may shift towards a deficit scenario, providing bottom support for bauxite prices.

However, due to the high volume of bauxite shipments from Guinea in April and May, in the short term, the supply of imported bauxite is expected to remain high, and the domestic bauxite market is expected to maintain a loose pattern. The total inventory of bauxite at alumina refineries and ports is expected to show an inventory buildup trend.