This week, the ferrous metals sector showed a clear downward trend, with rebar and coking coal and coke hitting new lows in recent months. Macro factors carried significant weight this week, leading to increased market volatility. At the beginning of the week, the Politburo meeting's statements fell short of expectations, with no anticipated real estate-related policies introduced, dampening market sentiment and causing a sharp correction in futures. Mid-week, rumors surfaced that China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) might be involved in supporting Vanke, which improved market sentiment and triggered a rapid rally in futures, though a slight correction occurred later in the session. The sustainability and substantive impact of real estate-related news remained limited. In the latter part of the week, signals released by the US Fed and domestic economic meetings did not exceed expectations, coupled with market rumors that steel export licensing regulations would be announced today, effective from January 1 next year, sparking concerns about export demand and leading to an expanded decline in futures.

According to an SMM survey, SMM’s large-caliber HRC inventory in Ningbo stood at 327,900 mt as of 12.10, up 3,900 mt WoW.This week HRC prices fluctuated downward; spot prices fell 40-90 yuan/mt WoW, and overall market sentiment stayed weak. By the 12.12 afternoon close, the most-traded HRC 2605 contract settled at 3,232 yuan/mt.

[Steel & Coal Daily Brief] Supply side, the second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, significantly squeezing coking plant profits. Additionally, emergency response measures for heavy pollution weather have been activated in several regions, leading some coking plants to intensify production cuts. However, weak sales have resulted in varying degrees of inventory accumulation at certain plants. Demand side, steel mill coke inventories are generally at reasonable levels, but persistent declines in steel prices and sluggish end-use consumption have further narrowed profit margins. With blast furnace maintenance expanding, rigid demand for coke has weakened, leading to generally low restocking willingness among steel mills. In summary, the coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with expectations of a third round of price cuts.

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Supply side, the second round of coke price cuts commenced, further squeezing coke enterprise profits. Coupled with stricter environmental protection policies, coke producers were forced to implement production cuts and restrictions, leading to a decline in coke output. Demand side, off-season characteristics became increasingly evident as steel prices continued to fall, keeping steel mill profits in negative territory. Moreover, blast furnace production cuts and maintenance gradually increased, lowering overall operating rates and reducing daily coke consumption. Additionally, most steel mills maintained coke inventories at reasonable levels, prompting cautious procurement and controlled arrival schedules. Overall, the coke market remained in the doldrums in the short term.

[Daily Coal & Coke Market Review] On the news front, some steel mills initiated the second round of coke price cuts, with wet-quenched coke reduced by 50 yuan/mt and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on December 12, 2025. In terms of supply, multiple regions issued heavy pollution alerts, impacting coke production and transportation, forcing some coke producers to cut production. Coke output is expected to decline, easing the oversupply situation. Demand side, finished steel prices fluctuated downward, blast furnace maintenance plans increased, and daily average hot metal production still has downside room. Coke’s rigid demand weakened, coupled with sluggish end-use demand, leading steel mills to prioritize just-in-time procurement. Overall, the second round of coke price cuts has emerged, market confidence is lacking, and the coke market may remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM Steel, December 9 – According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week were 186,300 mt, down 7.73% WoW from last week’s shipment level. By market:  

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Supply side, costs continued to pull back, and coke producers still had certain profits after coke price cuts, leading to continuous improvement in coke plant operations and steady growth in coke production. Demand side, daily average hot metal production at steel mills continued to decline, and end-use consumption demand was generally weak. Most steel mills saw intensified losses, and production cuts and maintenance plans further increased. Overall procurement demand for coke was in a downward phase, with just-in-time procurement being the main approach. Overall, coke prices are expected to start the second round of reductions this week, and the coke market may operate generally stable with slight fall in the short term.

On December 8, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.98 million mt of steel in November 2025, an increase of 198,000 mt MoM, up 2.0% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to November reached 107.717 million mt, up 6.7% YoY.