[Guangdong region underwent contract rollover this week. How will the premiums and discounts in Guangdong evolve amid the tug-of-war between increased supply and off-season demand?] This week, the contract in Guangdong shifted from the 2507 contract to the 2508 contract. Under the backwardation structure, spot premiums/discounts rose from 210 yuan/mt on June 16 to 400 yuan/mt on June 17, followed by a continuous decline in premiums and discounts in Guangdong. So, how will the spot premiums and discounts in Guangdong develop next under the current fundamental conditions......

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $55.27/dmt, with a 4.28% WoW increase. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-55/dmt, with a drop of $10/dmt .

[Import Window Closed in June, Limited Growth Expected in Refined Zinc Imports] According to the latest customs data, imports of refined zinc in May 2025 were 26,700 mt, down 1,500 mt or 5.36% MoM, and down 39.85% YoY. From January to May, cumulative imports of refined zinc were 155,900 mt, down 16.66% YoY. In May, exports of refined zinc were 1,400 mt, resulting in net imports of refined zinc of 25,300 mt.

[Equipment Maintenance at Enterprises During the Week Led to a Decline in Operating Rate of Die-Casting Zinc Alloy] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy was recorded at 55.12%, down 4.72 percentage points WoW. On the raw material side, zinc prices maintained a fluctuating trend this week. Although some end-users picked up goods during the week, most enterprises adopted a just-in-time procurement strategy, purchasing based on sales, leading to a slight MoM decline in raw material inventory. On the finished product inventories side, affected by the weakening end-use demand, the finished product inventories of die-casting zinc alloy increased MoM this week...

[Macro uncertainty coupled with weak domestic fundamentals led to mixed performance in zinc prices on SHFE and LME this week] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc continued the fluctuating trend from the previous week; subsequently, foreign media reported that Iran was seeking talks with the US and Israel to end the hostile state, and Trump also indicated that he would temporarily suspend sanctions against Russia, leading to an improvement in market sentiment and a continuous upward trend in LME zinc; however, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and subsequent developments were unclear, with LME zinc maintaining a fluctuating trend amid uncertainty......

SMM Analysis：According to the latest customs data, China imported 491,500 mt (metric tons) of zinc concentrate in May 2025, down 0.63% MoM (3,100 mt) from April, but up 84.26% YoY. From January to May, cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 2.204 million mt, up 52.46% YoY.....

[SMM Analysis: Galvanized Sheet Exports Pulled Back as Expected in May, Will They Continue to Decline in June?] According to the latest customs data, for galvanized sheet, exports in May 2025 reached 1.1144 million mt, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 totaling 5.7919 million mt, representing an 11.64% increase compared to the 5.1881 million mt in the same period of 2024. Overall, galvanized sheet exports dropped back slightly MoM in May, broadly in line with market expectations...

[Decline in Galvanizing Operating Rate, Weakening Demand]: This week, the operating rates of galvanising producers stood at 58.60%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points WoW. In terms of raw material inventory, zinc prices fluctuated this week, with weak downstream demand. Restocking was mainly driven by immediate needs or long-term contracts, and zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly.

[Premiums Continue to Decline Amid Weak Downstream Consumption]: This week, spot premiums in Tianjin continued to decline, dropping by approximately 65 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, domestic common brands were quoted at premiums of around 60-150 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract, while high-end brands were quoted at premiums of 150-160 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract. Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 10 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market.

[SHFE/LME price ratio pulls back to oscillate near 8.3, zinc ingot import window closes]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio declined and oscillated near 8.3, with the zinc ingot import window remaining closed. Overseas, geopolitical risks escalated rapidly internationally, and the strengthening of the US dollar index put the LME zinc under pressure. Mid-week, the US Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with retail sales data for May falling below expectations. As the US dollar index pulled back amidst fluctuations, the LME zinc oscillated after its center moved upwards.