This week, the ferrous metals series held up well. This week was a week for domestic and overseas macro data. At the beginning of the week, China released supply and demand data, with the supply side showing strength. The growth rate of industrial production was 5.8%. On the demand side, driven by the "trade-in" policy and the 618 shopping festival, demand growth rebounded. However, the growth rates of real estate and investment pulled back. As the week drew to a close, the US Federal Funds target rate remained at 4.25-4.5%, in line with expectations. Overall, domestic and overseas macro data were largely in line with expectations, and market sentiment was more characterized by following the upward trend in commodity prices brought about by the "Israel-Iran conflict." In the spot market, futures rose this week, market sentiment improved, and terminal procurement was somewhat released. However, overall, procurement sentiment remained cautious...

[Profits Under Pressure, Coke Plant Operations May Continue to Decline Next Week] This week, coke prices remained stable, having no negative impact on coke plant profits. However, on the cost side, coking coal prices also remained stable this week, with no further concessions from coal mines. Looking ahead, due to the overall loose supply-demand pattern and low downstream purchase willingness, coke prices are expected to fall further. However, the decline in costs will narrow, making it difficult to promptly restore coke plant profits. It is anticipated that coke plant profits will still face downward pressure next week.

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, affected by environmental protection factors, the operating rates of coke enterprises have declined. However, the purchase willingness of downstream buyers remains low, and coke inventories at most coke enterprises are still accumulating. Demand side, steel mills' coke inventories are generally at medium to high levels, and the market is in the traditional off-season, with steel mills showing weak enthusiasm for procurement. In summary, the overall supply-demand pattern for coke is loose. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin have already initiated the fourth round of price reductions for coke. The coke market may be in the doldrums next week.

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Inventory: Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 466,000 mt] Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 466,000 mt, up 28,000 mt or 6.4% WoW. Coke inventory at steel mills was 2.505 million mt, down 35,000 mt or 1.4% WoW. Coke inventory at ports was 1.27 million mt, down 0 mt or 0.0% WoW. Coking coal inventory at coking plants was 2.384 million mt, down 67,000 mt or 2.7% WoW.

On June 18 local time, the US Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. This marked the fourth consecutive decision by the US Fed's monetary policy meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. On June 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that the US Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged was in line with market expectations. The dot plot released after the meeting indicated that the US Fed may reduce interest rates by a total of 50 basis points within this year. However, the market generally believes that there is still significant uncertainty regarding the future pace of interest rate cuts by the US Fed, depending on the trends in US inflation and employment data, as well as the impact of tariff measures and other economic policies on economic activity.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] Today, rebar futures first declined and then rose, closing at 2,986, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, most construction material markets maintained stable quotes in the morning, while a few markets saw a slight drop in quotes, with declines ranging from 10 to 30 yuan/mt. Trading performance was poor throughout the day. Fundamentals side, supply side, the production profit margins for construction materials diverged between BF and EAF steel mills...

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, affected by environmental protection factors, the operating rates of coking enterprises have declined. However, the purchase willingness of downstream buyers remains low, and coke inventories at most coking enterprises are still accumulating. Demand side, steel mills' coke inventories are generally at medium to high levels, but the market is still in a downward phase, and steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing is relatively weak. In summary, the overall supply-demand pattern of coke is loose, and the coke market will be in the doldrums in the short term, with expectations strengthening for a fourth round of proposed price reductions for coke.

Recently, news has emerged from multiple regions about the suspension or adjustment of the "national subsidy" for trade-in policies. In response, relevant national authorities have stated their plans for the next steps regarding the "national subsidy." This year, the state has allocated 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the trade-in of consumer goods. To date, a total of 162 billion yuan has been disbursed to local governments, with the remaining funds to be disbursed in an orderly manner. The trade-in policy for consumer goods will be implemented throughout 2025, and relevant departments are guiding local governments to use the "national subsidy" funds in a stable and orderly manner to enhance the effectiveness of the policy.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] Yesterday, rebar futures fluctuated and closed at 2,986, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, spot cargo quotes in most regions dropped slightly in the morning, with declines of 10-20 yuan/mt. Market trading sentiment was weak, and overall transaction performance was mediocre throughout the day. On the fundamental side, supply side, EAF steel mill profits continued to be squeezed. This week, three additional electric furnace plants halted production for maintenance, and two electric furnace plants shortened their operating hours. According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide, which mainly produce construction materials, was 30.98%, down 3.66% MoM from the previous period...