[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, Expected to Fluctuate at Lows in the Near Future]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been running at persistently low levels recently. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces stood at only 46.84%. Sharp Decline in Tin Ore Imports to Yunnan: The progress of production resumptions at the Wa region's mines in Myanmar has stalled, coupled with transportation difficulties during the rainy season, leading to a continuous decline in tin ore imports from the Wa region. Meanwhile, due to Thailand's transportation ban, the southern part of Myanmar has seen a reduction of 500-1,000 mt (metal content) in tin ore supply per month. Pressure on Treatment Charges (TCs): The TCs for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan have fallen to historical lows, approaching the cost line of smelters, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to cut production or undergo maintenance. Shortage of Recycled Tin Raw Materials in Jiangxi: Jiangxi smelters primarily rely on scrap tin recycling, but the recycling volume of scrap materials after the Chinese New Year has been less than 70% of the annual average. The supply of electronic scrap has declined by 30% MoM, compounded by policy uncertainties (such as adjustments to renewable resource policies), exacerbating the raw material shortage. Rising Costs: The rising cost of scrap sorting, coupled with the decline in TCs for tin concentrates, has eroded the profits of recycled tin smelting, potentially leading to the permanent exit of some capacities. Blockage in Transmission to End-Use Industries: The electronics and home appliance industries have slowed down their production pace due to cost pressures, reducing the circulation of scrap materials and forming a negative feedback loop. The raw material shortage is unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, coupled with the off-season in consumption. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi will continue to fluctuate at lows or even decline further.

[SMM Analysis: Tin Ore Imports Rebounded in May, While Domestic Smelting Supply Pressure Persists] In May, domestic tin ore imports reached 13,400 mt (equivalent to approximately 6,518 mt in metal content), up 36.39% MoM and 59.84% YoY, an increase of 2,182 mt in metal content compared to April (equivalent to 4,336 mt in metal content in April). The cumulative imports from January to May totaled 50,200 mt, down 36.51% YoY. In May, domestic tin ingot imports amounted to 2,076 mt, up 84.04% MoM and 225.9% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to May reached 9,584 mt, up 38.48% YoY...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Short-Term Tin Prices Constrained by Macro Risk-Aversion Sentiment, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract May Continue to Be in the Doldrums] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) continued its weak trend from the night session, opening at 262,850 yuan/mt, 880 yuan lower than the previous day's opening. By midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was temporarily quoted at around 261,180 yuan/mt, with an intraday decline of approximately 0.97%. Trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and market sentiment remained cautious.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,619.5/mt, hitting an intraday high of $9,635.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

SHFE tin prices dropped back slightly during the night session, with some downstream enterprises starting to build positions and restock [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) According to the latest report released by the International Data Corporation (IDC), in Q1 2025, the Chinese robot vacuum cleaner market shipped 1.188 million units, up 21.4% YoY, with the shipment growth rate exceeding 20% for two consecutive quarters. Affected by the "national subsidies," the trend of increased concentration among leading producers was more pronounced in the Chinese market than in the global market, accelerating market consolidation, and the market share gap among the Top 5 producers continued to narrow. (2) On June 19, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Quality Development Bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the Fire Supervision Department of the National Fire and Rescue Administration jointly held a video conference to strengthen the safety management of NEVs and to discuss and deploy the safety management work for NEVs this year. (3) Several major US tech companies are pushing for a ten-year federal ban to prevent individual US states from formulating their own AI regulatory regulations.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Overall downstream procurement is mainly characterized by "small batches and multiple orders," with the spot market maintaining a sluggish situation] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuated at highs, with an intraday trading range of 263,020-264,500 yuan/mt, and eventually closed at 263,300 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.05% from the previous day. The open interest of the most-traded SHFE tin contract decreased to 21,158 lots, and the trading volume reduced to 53,667 lots, indicating insufficient willingness among investors to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The LME tin contract was quoted at $32,250/mt, down by 0.19% from the previous day, with an intraday high of $32,465/mt. Technically, it stood firm above the moving average group, with a short-term resistance level at $33,000/mt.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged but Signals "Hawkish" Stance, SHFE Tin and LME Tin Remain High and Rangebound] As of midday, the 3-month LME tin contract was quoted at $32,465/mt, up 0.48% from yesterday. Technical analysis: LME tin has stabilized above the moving average group, with a short-term resistance level at $33,000/mt. If breached, it may open upside room, but caution is advised against a US dollar rebound and macro headwinds. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged but signaled a "hawkish" stance, with the US dollar index fluctuating rangebound, suppressing the upside room for commodities.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,668/mt, hitting a high of $9,694.5/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward throughout the session, touching a low of $9,648/mt near the close, and eventually closing at $9,650.5/mt, down 0.2%.

US Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting - Maintains Rates Unchanged for the Fourth Consecutive Time; SHFE Tin Prices Rebound Slightly After Hitting Bottom [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The US Fed's June interest rate meeting maintained rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year has risen to seven, and the expected number of rate cuts next year has been reduced to one. Powell continues to emphasize uncertainty, stating that the current economic situation is suitable for a wait-and-see approach. He also anticipates tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months. (2) According to Yonhap News Agency, citing a plan reported by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT to the Presidential National Policy Planning Committee, the South Korean government will invest 16.1 trillion won in the AI sector over the next five years. It will ensure the secure supply of 50,000 GPUs and build AI data centers. Support will be provided for the development of AI models, making them accessible to all citizens. (Bullish ★) (3) The "Several Policy Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry in Guangzhou Development Zone and Huangpu District" has been issued, aiming to help build the core carrier area for the third pole of China's integrated circuit industry. It mentions optimizing the industrial development layout, achieving breakthroughs in areas such as chip design, specialty processes, advanced packaging and testing, EDA tools, equipment, and parts, creating an entire industry chain covering design, manufacturing, materials, equipment and parts, packaging and testing, and establishing a comprehensive integrated circuit industry cluster. (Bullish ★)

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: On the Eve of the US Fed's June Interest Rate Meeting, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Fluctuate] In the spot market, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has been slow. Although some miners have applied to resume production, strict approval processes, coupled with transportation restrictions during the rainy season, have kept actual imports at a low level. Meanwhile, Thailand's policy of banning Myanmar from using its territory to transport tin ore has exacerbated the tight supply, with an estimated impact of 500-1,000 mt (metal content) on domestic monthly supply.