The grand show of the copper market in 2025 kicks off. Who will become the "leading actor" this year: macro factors, inventories, or supply? [SMM Special Topic]

[SMM spot copper] Supplier sentiment for shipping goods at month-end further declined. The sentiment for spot sales of copper cathode in the Shanghai area decreased by 0.04 from yesterday to 3.18. Limited available supply in the market drove up spot premiums for SHFE copper, and it is expected to remain firm tomorrow.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China traded at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction prices ranged from 78,920 yuan/mt to 79,080 yuan/mt, with an average price of 79,000 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,787.5/mt, touching a low of $9,758.5/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward throughout, reaching a high of $9,827/mt near the close. It rebounded slightly at the end of the session, closing at $9,803/mt, up 0.41%. Trading volume reached 11,000 lots, and open interest reached 269,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened at 78,910 yuan/mt, touching a high of 78,870 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward and reaching a high of 79,230 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated rangebound, closing at 79,090 yuan/mt at the end of the session, up 0.14%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest reached 172,000 lots.