Geopolitical conflicts escalate, copper prices fluctuate and close lower during the night session [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM June 20 report: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,619.5/mt, hitting an intraday high of $9,635.5/mt shortly after the opening bell. It fluctuated considerably during the session, dipping to a low of $9,590/mt, before rebounding towards the close to finish at $9,619.5/mt, down 0.32%. Trading volume reached 12,000 lots, while open interest stood at 290,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,160 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 78,350 yuan/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 78,130 yuan/mt during the session, before rebounding towards the close to finish at 78,280 yuan/mt, down 0.27%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, while open interest stood at 174,000 lots. On the macro front, Israel bombed Iranian nuclear targets on Thursday. After Iran attacked an Israeli hospital overnight, it launched missiles and drones at Israel. Currently, neither side shows signs of backing down. Moreover, Trump is expected to decide within the next two weeks whether the US will intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, escalating geopolitical tensions and driving up the US dollar index, which is weighing on copper prices. On the supply side, a significant outflow of SHFE warrants was observed yesterday, with Russian copper being sold at low prices in the market. However, the market's absorption capacity is limited, and it is expected that the low-priced supply will still be difficult to fully digest today. In terms of inventory, as of Thursday, June 5, SMM's copper inventory in major Chinese markets fell by 2,000 mt from Monday to 146,000 mt, up 1,100 mt from Thursday last week, and down 253,000 mt from 398,000 mt in the same period last year. On the price front, with macro and fundamental factors failing to form a resonance, it is expected that copper prices will struggle to stop falling and rebound today.