Apparent Demand for Hot-rolled Coil Increases Significantly, Supporting Iron Ore Prices to Stop Falling and Stabilize [SMM Commentary]

In the morning, DCE iron ore futures continued to drop slightly, but rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 698, up 0.43% for the day. Traders sold goods according to market conditions, with limited speculative transactions. Steel mills adopted a wait-and-see attitude cautiously, with a strong desire to bargain down prices. The overall market transaction atmosphere was average. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 710 yuan/mt, up 2-3 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. In the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 720 yuan/mt, basically stable compared to yesterday's prices. From today's industrial data, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products improved overall, with a significant MoM increase in plate and coil demand. Rebar only dropped back slightly under the influence of heavy rain and the senior high school entrance examination. It is worth noting that against the backdrop of increasing total production, steel inventory still maintained a de-stocking trend, providing support for the prices of overall ferrous metals. Iron ore prices stopped falling and stabilized. However, considering the characteristics of the off-season in the industry and the pressure from high production, the market still has concerns about the "negative feedback" mechanism. It is expected that ore prices will lack sustained rebound momentum in the short term and may maintain a rangebound fluctuation.

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