Futures market fluctuates considerably, prices move downward, market trading improves [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

Published: Jun 19, 2025 12:45

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[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: Futures Market Fluctuates Considerably, Prices Decline, Market Transactions Improve] Inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 449,000 mt on June 19, experiencing a destocking of 0.9 mt compared to the previous trading day. In the short term, the relatively low arrival of aluminum ingots and the reduction in aluminum ingot inventory are conducive to high spot premiums in the spot market. However, there is a strong fear of high prices in the spot market, with downstream purchase willingness being poor. Transactions are concluded at discounts, and it is expected that the short-term spot premiums will show a narrowing trend.

SMM, June 19

Today, SHFE aluminum opened higher in the morning session, influenced by the low inventory of aluminum ingots and the ongoing destocking, pushing the price center upwards. However, the impact of the off-season soon set in, leading to generally average actual transactions. The futures market pulled back significantly, with prices also pulling back. Market transactions improved somewhat, but purchasing as needed remained the main trend. In east China, the market initially offered shipments at SMM average price +10 yuan/mt in the morning, with some high-quality brands quoting at +20 yuan/mt. However, due to insufficient downstream demand and lingering fear of high prices, downstream buyers considered purchasing at SMM average price -10 yuan/mt. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was reported at 20,770 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of 180 yuan/mt against the July contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In the central China market, suppliers continued to offer large discounts in the morning session, with significant production cuts in the downstream sector and poor trading activity in the spot market. The spot market offered discounts of 30 to 20 yuan/mt against SMM central China prices, with -20 yuan/mt being the most common, and the price spread with east China widened further. Today, SMM central China A00 aluminum was recorded at 20,610 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was 160 yuan/mt, widening by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract.

In terms of inventory, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 449,000 mt on June 19, down 0.9 mt from the previous trading day. In the short term, the low arrival of aluminum ingots and the reduction in inventory are conducive to high spot premiums. However, the spot market is still dominated by a strong fear of high prices, with poor downstream purchase willingness and transactions occurring at discounts. It is expected that spot premiums will show a narrowing trend in the short term.

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