Concerns about warrant outflows weighing on premiums prompt SHFE copper traders to rush to sell during the day [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jun 18, 2025 13:35

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[SMM Spot Copper] There was no significant outflow of warrants in the morning, but suppliers were concerned that subsequent warrant outflows would hit spot premiums. Today, there was a noticeable rush to sell. It is expected that after warrants flow out tomorrow, there will be further downside room for spot premiums.

SMM News on June 18:

Today, spot prices for SMM #1 copper cathode against the current-month 2507 contract were quoted at premiums of 140-220 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 180

yuan/mt, a decrease of 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 78,740 to 78,920 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper 2506 contract opened higher in the morning session, briefly touching 78,720 yuan/mt before giving up gains and subsequently trading between 78,620 and 78,680 yuan/mt, closing at 78,650 yuan/mt in the morning. The price spread between futures contracts (BACK) fluctuated between 150-180 yuan/mt in the morning session, with an estimated import loss of approximately 900 yuan/mt for the current-month SHFE copper contract.

At the beginning of the morning session, suppliers quoted premiums of 200-230 yuan/mt for brands such as JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang. However, as traders concluded transactions for JCC at a lower premium of 170 yuan/mt, mainstream transaction prices weakened. Subsequently, brands such as Tiefeng, Honglu, and Yuguang from the Changzhou region were traded at premiums of 120-140 yuan/mt. Russian copper continued to be sold at lower prices throughout the day, with transactions ranging from parity to premiums of 40 yuan/mt.

No significant outflow of warrants was observed in the morning session, but suppliers were concerned that subsequent warrant outflows would pressure premiums, leading to a noticeable rush to sell today. It is expected that there will be further downside room for spot premiums after warrant outflows tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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