Customs data shows that in May, both the volume and proportion of China's imports of copper cathode from countries that mainly produce non-registered copper cathode declined. The volume and proportion were 15.52 and 61.33%, respectively; this proportion is the lowest from January to May 2025.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China traded at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, a decrease of 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction prices ranged from 78,120 yuan/mt to 78,290 yuan/mt, with an average price of 78,205 yuan/mt, an increase of 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Copper Cathode Rod Exports Hit New High in May, But Expected to Decline in June [SMM Analysis]: In May, copper cathode rod exports increased as expected, with exports mainly concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, as well as Saudi Arabia, South Korea, etc. However, due to weak end-use demand in June, exports are expected to decline. Details are as follows:

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,643.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,615.0/mt and peaking at $9,697.0/mt, before closing at $9,694.5/mt, up 0.35%.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Heat Up, Copper Prices Have Strong Support at the Bottom] On June 23, spot prices for SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2507 contract for the current month were reported at premiums of 60-120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Looking ahead today, the significant decrease in inventory in the Shanghai region over the weekend was mainly due to the gradual outflow of delivery warrants. However, there is still pressure on the market to sell and receive payments today, and spot premiums are expected to decline further...

[US Fed Officials Strengthen Expectations for July Interest Rate Cut; Copper Prices Fluctuate Upward and Close Higher Overnight] On the macro side, US Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee both hinted that if inflationary pressures are brought under control, they will support an interest rate cut in July. Goolsbee claimed that since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of significant inflationary pressures, which may enable the US Fed to resume interest rate cuts. Bowman stated that if inflation remains mild, she will support an interest rate cut in July. The US dollar index has been declining, supporting copper prices.

[SMM Analysis] According to market news, there were rumors last week that the US would release a mid-term report on copper tariff issues. Under the expectation of an early resolution of tariffs, the LME forward curve structure corrected, with the price spread between November and December dates returning to Flat Backwardation. In the short term, the market's expectations for balance in H2 have relaxed. This article assumes that tariffs will be resolved early in July in the US, and discusses the balance and structural changes of copper cathode in H2 2025 after the resolution of tariffs.