Supply and demand fundamentals of the battery market and the application and development of antimony metal in lead-antimony alloy plates for batteries [Minor Metals Conference]

On June 13, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Antimony Forum hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Yi Xiaobo, Senior Advisor/Senior Engineer at the National Quality Supervision and Inspection Center for Power and Energy Storage Battery Products, shared insights on "The Fundamentals of Supply and Demand in the Battery Market and the Application and Development of Antimony Metal in Lead-Antimony Alloy Plates for Batteries."

I. Analysis of the Lead-Acid Battery Application Market

1. Total Production

2. Proportion of Main Products

►Power Type: Electric two-wheelers, electric three-wheelers, electric four-wheelers; Top-tier enterprises: Tianneng, Chilwee, Xupai, Jingjiu, Suzhong, Huoju.

►Starting Type: Cars, agricultural vehicles, motorcycles, ships, diesel locomotives; Top-tier enterprises: Camel, Fengfan, Leoch, Jujiang, GS Yuasa.

►Standby Power Type: Electric power, telecommunications, UPS, data centers; Top-tier enterprises: Narada, Leoch, Shuangdeng, Sacred Sun, Ruida, Vision.

►Energy Storage Type: ESS power stations, industrial and commercial ESS, household ESS; Top-tier enterprises: Narada, Leoch, Shuangdeng, Sacred Sun, Huafu.

3. Market Situation

In recent years, with the continuous emergence and application of various new-type batteries, the traditional lead-acid battery market has faced severe challenges.

Overall Situation: Lithium batteries have rapidly occupied the high ground; sodium-ion batteries are poised for takeoff; other new-type power supplies are eagerly awaiting their turn.

Automotive Market

As of 2024, the domestic automobile ownership stood at approximately 353 million units, with NEVs accounting for 8.9%; globally, automobile ownership reached 1.6 billion units, with NEVs accounting for 3%.

►Market Analysis

Ø The market demand growth rate for internal combustion engine vehicles will decline over the next three years.

Ø Extended-range and plug-in electric vehicles have become the mainstream in NEV development.

Ø Currently, 98% of internal combustion engine vehicles, except for parked heavy trucks, use lead batteries.

Ø Lithium batteries dominate in NEVs, with lead batteries serving as a supplement.

Ø The development of vehicle electrification and intelligent driving over the next three to five years will have a significant impact on the traditional lead-acid battery market.

Ø Demand characteristics: Safety, starting capability, charging acceptance, vibration resistance, low-temperature resistance, high-temperature resistance, lifespan, and price.

Ø Sodium-ion batteries are beginning to penetrate the market.

Electric Two-Wheelers

In 2024, the total domestic sales of electric two-wheelers reached approximately 49.5 million units, representing an 11.6% YoY decline compared to the previous year, while overseas sales totaled around 18.77 million units, showing a 24.8% YoY increase. By the end of December 2024, the ownership of electric two-wheelers in the Chinese market was approximately 400 million units.

►Market Analysis

Ø Currently, lead-acid batteries hold a market share exceeding 87%, lithium batteries account for around 11%, and sodium-ion batteries make up less than 2%.

Ø The trend still favors lead-acid batteries, as there is a demand for batteries with higher safety than lithium batteries, and sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a strong contender.

Electric Three-Wheelers and Low-Speed Electric Four-Wheelers

By the end of 2024, the market ownership of electric three-wheelers nationwide was approximately 70 million units. In 2024, the sales of low-speed electric four-wheelers in China were about 302,000 units, representing an 8.5% YoY decline. The market is expected to continue declining in 2025, with future development depending on policies and relevant standards.

►Market Analysis

Ø Lead-acid batteries account for approximately 60% of the market for electric three-wheelers and low-speed electric four-wheelers, with lithium batteries gradually increasing their share to 40%, and sodium-ion batteries accounting for 0.5%.

Ø For other electric vehicles, including electric forklifts, electric logistics vehicles, electric flatbed trucks, and tourist sightseeing vehicles, lithium batteries account for about 80% of the market, lead-acid batteries for about 20%, and sodium-ion batteries for 0.3%.

II. Application of Antimony Metal in Lead-Acid Batteries

1. The Importance of Antimony Metal

Rare Metal: Antimony has an extremely low abundance in the Earth's crust, at only two parts per ten million. It is primarily found in the sulphide mineral stibnite (Sb2S3). As of 2024, global antimony reserves reached 2.255 million mt, with China holding 670,000 mt, accounting for 29.7% and ranking first in the world.

Strategic Metal: Known as the "vitamin" of industry, antimony plays an indispensable role in new energy and military industries.

2. Main Uses of Antimony Metal

►Flame Retardants: Antimony trioxide, when combined with halogenated flame retardants, becomes an irreplaceable flame-retardant material widely used in industries such as plastics, rubber, textiles, and chemical fibers.

►PV Power Generation: PV Glass: Antimony compounds and sodium pyroantimonate are used as glass refining agents to improve transparency. Monocrystalline Silicon Panels: Doping with antimony increases oxygen precipitation rates, improves crystal quality, and enhances photoelectric conversion efficiency.

►Lead-Acid Batteries: Grid alloys, parts, and additives (antimony trioxide).

►Semiconductor Materials: High-purity antimony and its compounds are used as dopants in n-type silicon wafers with ultra-high conductivity (for diodes, infrared detectors, Hall elements, etc.).

►Glass Ceramics: Porcelain: As a hardness and wear-resistance agent for glazes. Glass: As a coloring agent, strength enhancer, and heat-resistant agent.

►Strategic Military Applications: Nuclear weapons, rockets, missile shells, bullets, flares, gun barrels, night vision goggles, infrared sensors, precision optics, laser sights, etc.

► Alloy materials: Enhancers and corrosion inhibitors for bearings, gears, chemical pipelines, cable sheathing, etc.

► Chemical materials: Stabilizers and catalysts for polyester compounds and polyethylene terephthalate.

3. Production and price of antimony metal

► Limited production: In 2024, China's antimony metal production was 72,000 mt, a 10.3% YoY decrease, with a capacity utilisation rate of 33%, constrained by insufficient raw material supply. The demand in 2024 was 97,100 mt, mainly driven by the expansion of PV systems and flame-retardant materials, which increased the demand for antimony metal.

► Significant increase in antimony imports: According to customs statistics, China's imports of antimony ore and concentrate were 51,080.2 mt in 2024, a 46.0% YoY increase.

► Price increase: The intensified supply-demand imbalance drove up prices.

► Development trends: A. The state intensifies industry regulation and export controls; B. The supply of antimony resources may continue to tighten; C. The demand for downstream applications is increasingly robust; D. Technology reshapes the value chain, with application scenarios shifting towards high-end (PV, military, battery); E. The supply-demand gap for antimony will widen in 2025; F. Prices may continue to rise; G. Antimony recycling technology improves, with an increase in recycling rates.

4. Application of antimony metal in lead-acid batteries

► Application history

a. In 1859, Frenchman Gaston Plante invented the lead-acid battery (two lead plates immersed in dilute sulphuric acid could generate an electric current).

b. In 1881, Frenchman Camille Faure invented the pasted plate (a rechargeable lead-acid battery with lead oxide coated on the lead plates).

c. In 1882, Englishman Sellon invented the lead-antimony alloy grid (with 5%-7% antimony content, enhancing plate strength, conductivity, and lifespan).

d. 1950s-1970s: Lead-antimony-arsenic alloy (with 3%-5% antimony content, addressing water loss and self-discharge issues).

e. 1980s-1990s: Lead-antimony-arsenic-tin alloy (with 1.5%-2% antimony content, addressing water loss, internal resistance, and self-discharge issues).

f. 1990s onwards: Application of valve-regulated batteries (gradually replacing lead-antimony alloy grids); lead-antimony-arsenic-tin-copper-selenium(sulphur) alloy (with 0.5%-1% antimony content, addressing water loss, self-discharge, and corrosion issues).

► Current application status

a. Lead-antimony grids: Flooded battery grids (for automotive, agricultural vehicle starting batteries, forklift traction batteries, electric three-wheeler power batteries, and motorcycle starting batteries).

b. Applications of lead parts: terminal posts, terminals, busbars, and connecting strips.

c. Lead-calcium grid plate: Antimony trioxide (an additive for positive active material, addressing the passivation issue of deep-cycle plates, i.e., solving the "antimony-free effect" of plates).

‌‌►Usage volume

a. Antimony ingot: Approximately 10,000 mt per year;

b. Antimony trioxide: Approximately 2,000 mt per year.

‌‌►Future usage trends

a. The usage of antimony ingot will gradually decrease (forklift batteries and electric three-wheeler batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium-ion batteries and sodium-ion batteries).

b. The usage of antimony trioxide will remain basically unchanged.

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