[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Supply Continues to Decline, Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Slide]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, have declined to relatively low levels, with a combined operating rate of 47.05%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained unchanged from the previous week. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi dropped significantly, remaining consistently lower than that in Yunnan and declining by approximately 35 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Several smelters began halting production for maintenance this month to alleviate the tight supply of scrap. The rising cost of scrap recycling, coupled with the decline in tin concentrate TCs, has driven up production costs for enterprises, eroding the profits of secondary tin smelting. Meanwhile, considering the stalled production resumptions in the Wa region of Myanmar, combined with the impact of the rainy season on transportation, tin ore imports from the Wa region are expected to continue declining this month. Additionally, due to transportation bans imposed by relevant Thai authorities in southern Myanmar, tin ore supply will be reduced by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). In summary, given the decline in the supply of tin ore and scrap, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are likely to maintain low operating levels or continue to experience a downward trend in the coming weeks.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Some Smelters Have Initiated Maintenance or Gradual Production Cuts; SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Considerably in the Afternoon] Tight Supply of Tin Ore: The ban on transporting tin ore from southern Myanmar via Thailand continues to escalate, with domestic tin ore imports in June expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt (metal content), exacerbating pressure on the raw material side. Due to insufficient raw material inventory (generally below 30 days) and low TCs, smelters in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi have maintained low operating rates (approximately 54% in total), with some enterprises having initiated maintenance or gradual production cuts.

Purchase willingness of downstream enterprises has significantly weakened, while the price of SHFE tin has maintained a slight downward trend [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) AMD and OpenAI jointly released a super-powerful AI chip, boosting inference by 35 times (bullish ★). (2) Micron will invest approximately US$200 billion in the US chip manufacturing and R&D sectors (bullish ★). (3) The total global smartphone production in the first quarter of 2025 reached 289 million units. Although this represents a decrease of about 3% compared to the same period in 2024, the production performance of various brands remained relatively stable (bullish ★). (4) Tariffs - ① Trump will sign key parts of the US-UK trade agreement within a few days. ② Canadian Prime Minister: Progress has been made in US-Canada trade negotiations. ③ Trump: Auto tariffs may be raised in the near future. ④ The US Department of Commerce announced a new process for auto tariff credits and also announced that starting from the 23rd, additional tariffs will be imposed on steel home appliances, including washing machines and refrigerators.

[SMM SHFE Tin Brief Review: Sluggish Growth in Orders for Consumer Electronics and Automotive Electronics, Significant Weakening of Purchase Willingness Among Downstream Enterprises] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuated rangebound, opening at 265,100 yuan/mt and closing at 265,150 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 13.505 billion yuan. Market trading was sluggish, and open interest decreased to 25,600 lots, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears near the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with a lack of clear direction in the short term.​​Tightening Raw Material Supply​​: The pace of production resumptions at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region remains uncertain. Additionally, Thailand has suspended the transit of tin ore from Myanmar through its territory since June 4, which is expected to reduce domestic tin ore imports by 500-1,000 mt in June. Affected by the shortage of raw materials and the rainy season, waste tin recycling in Yunnan and Jiangxi, the two major producing regions, has been impacted. As a result, smelters' operating rates have remained low, and the supply of refined tin has continued to tighten.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The SHFE tin market is in a "strong reality, weak expectations" tug-of-war phase, with SHFE tin prices likely to remain high and range-bound in the afternoon] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a high and range-bound pattern. The opening price was reported at 265,100 yuan/mt, showing a slight fluctuation compared to yesterday's closing price of 265,530 yuan/mt. It closed at 265,140 yuan/mt at midday, down 0.02%. Market trading was relatively sluggish, with open interest slightly decreasing to 25,500 lots, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears near the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold.

US's Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate in May Falls Below Market Expectations; SHFE Tin Prices Maintain a Slight Downward Trend [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The US's unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was recorded at 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%. (Bearish ★) (2) Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," stated that the decline in car and clothing prices led to the core CPI reading in May being lower than expected. Some forecasters had believed that these two categories would show the early impact of tariffs in May. (Bearish ★) (3) Sixteen automakers have committed to standardizing the payment terms for suppliers to within 60 days. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① The EU hopes to extend the trade negotiation period beyond the temporary suspension deadline set by Trump. ② Bessent: As long as "good faith" is demonstrated in the negotiations, the Trump administration is willing to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9. ③ Trump will hold multiple bilateral talks during the G7 Summit. ④ The US's total customs revenue in May reached a record $23 billion, nearly quadrupling YoY. ⑤ Lutnick: Deals will be reached one after another.

[SMM Tin Market Brief: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder are suppressed by high prices, compounded by the traditional consumption sector entering the off-season]​​​​Tin ore imports restricted​​: Due to the suspension of transportation routes in southern Myanmar by Thailand (starting from June 4) and internal transportation disruptions in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports in June are expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). Additionally, the production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing slowly, with the restoration of the power system requiring at least three months, making it difficult to change the tight supply situation of ore in the short term.​​​​Weak traditional demand​​: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder and tinplate are suppressed by high prices, with some companies' operating rates falling below 60%.......

[SMM Tin Midday Review: A Tug-of-War Between Supply-Demand Imbalance (Disruptions in Myanmar and Africa) and Off-Season Demand; SHFE Tin Prices May Remain High and Rangebound in the Afternoon] As of midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 265,840 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.81% from the previous trading day, continuing to fluctuate rangebound. Slow Resumption of Production in Myanmar's Wa Region: Despite the initiation of production resumptions at the end of April, strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and extended processing times for mining licenses have delayed the actual increase in tin ore output until July. Starting from June 4, the Thai government has banned the transit of tin ore through Myanmar, which is expected to affect domestic imports by approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) in June, exacerbating the tight raw material supply for smelting.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened higher and maintained high-level fluctuations, while trading in the spot market was sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) During the 2025 World Oceans Day and the UN Ocean Conference, China officially launched the world's first digital intelligent system for deep-sea seamounts, which has received widespread attention from the international community. (Bullish ★) (2) NVIDIA (NVDA.O) and HPE announced that they will collaborate with the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre to build a new-type supercomputer using NVIDIA's next-generation chips. (Bullish ★) (3) The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: Support Shenzhen in deepening the reform and innovation of the flight management system for unmanned aerial vehicles and improving regulatory rules for low-altitude flights. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - Sources: India and the US are expected to reach a provisional trade agreement before month-end, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. (Neutral)