SMM HRC Daily Review: Sentiment Fades, HRC Futures Peak and Decline Anticipated

Published: Jun 11, 2025 17:32

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[SMM HRC Daily Review] Beware of Fading Sentiment, HRC Futures Hit Peak and Pull Back

Today, the most-traded HRC contract first rose and then fell, with the 2510 contract closing at 3108 in the afternoon session, up 0.77% WoW. Spot prices increased slightly. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production this week was 172,600 mt, a decrease of 35,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production is expected to be 158,800 mt, a decrease of 13,800 mt WoW, indicating a continued rebound in supply pressure. On the demand side, market sentiment was significantly influenced by the futures market, with slightly better sales at lower prices, and overall purchasing was mainly as needed. In terms of raw materials, pig iron production may continue to decline in the short term, slightly weakening the cost support for HRC. Overall, while the China-U.S. talks may release optimistic signals, on the whole, even if the talks are optimistic, their impact on steel will be more about stimulating sentiment, with limited actual effects. Additionally, inventory has accumulated in some mainstream cities, and the HRC market in June may gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. After the stimulus from sentiment fades, it is expected that HRC prices will hit a peak and pull back in the short term. It is recommended to focus on selling at highs.

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