Market trading activity is neutral to weak, with both bulls and bears vying around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Published: Jun 10, 2025 17:56

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[SMM SHFE Tin Brief Commentary: Market Trading Activity Neutral to Weak, Bulls and Bears Compete Around the 264,000 yuan/mt Threshold]Today's Market Trends: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a fluctuating trend in the morning session, trading at 263,420 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.21% from the previous day, and overall maintaining a rangebound fluctuation pattern. Market trading activity was neutral to weak, with bulls and bears competing around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold.Global Liquidity Easing: The PBOC released liquidity through increased Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations and RRR cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address economic weakness. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen (ADP employment in May increased by only 37,000), and the weakening US dollar has provided support for tin prices denominated in US dollars. Policy and Trade Frictions: Adjustments to the US tariff policy on China and Thailand's ban on the transit transportation of tin ore from Myanmar have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, increasing market sensitivity to geopolitical risks...

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 10, 2025

**Today's Market Trend**: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a fluctuating trend in the morning session, closing at 263,420 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.21% from the previous day, and overall maintaining a rangebound fluctuation pattern. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears competing around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold.

**Global Liquidity Easing**: The PBOC released liquidity through increased Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address economic weakness. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have intensified (ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May), and the weakening US dollar has supported tin prices denominated in US dollars.

**Policy and Trade Frictions**: Adjustments to the US tariff policy on China and Thailand's ban on the transit of tin ore from Myanmar have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, increasing market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

**Price Range**: The short-term support level for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is 250,000 yuan/mt, and the resistance level is 270,000 yuan/mt. Currently, it is fluctuating around the 264,000 yuan/mt pivot, with the MACD indicator showing a stalemate between bullish and bearish momentum.

**Capital Flows**: Bears are betting on the risk of inventory buildup during the off-season, while bulls are competing on the continuation of supply disruptions. Open interest has increased slightly, but trading activity remains limited.

**Spot Market**: Overall trading was sluggish. Some traders have not yet replenished their inventories, while others reported trading around 10 mt, mostly for just-in-time procurement, with a small number of low-priced orders placed.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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