The price of imported alumina shifted from profit to loss, and the import window closed [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 10

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,906 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,907 yuan/mt, a low of 2,880 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,883 yuan/mt, down 9 yuan/mt or 0.31%, with open interest at 300,000 lots.

Ore: As of June 9, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $75.12/mt, down $0.08/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $75/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 9, the SMM Alumina Index premium against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 was 384.83 yuan/mt.

Warrant Report: On June 9, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,110 mt from the previous trading day to 90,400 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 300 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang decreased by 2,110 mt from the previous trading day to 86,500 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 9, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.85/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to an external selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 3,270 yuan/mt, which is 4.03 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, indicating that the alumina import window is closed.

Summary:

Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 mt/year to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina arrived at Chinese ports. With supply recovering and no significant changes in demand, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt last week. As of June 9, the price of imported alumina shifted from profit to loss, and the import window was closed. In the short term, the fundamental outlook for alumina remains relatively loose, and alumina spot prices are expected to be in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]