SEIA: PV Industry Growth in the US to Slow Down as Washington's Priorities Shift

A recent industry report indicates that due to federal policy shifts favoring fossil fuels, tariffs, and other challenges facing the US PV industry, local new solar installations are expected to decline over the next five years.

According to forecasts released on Monday by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, new solar power generation in 2030 is projected to decrease by more than 10% compared to 2025.

This outlook accounts for the anticipated impact of new tariffs imposed by the federal government on a range of imported materials crucial to solar projects, including steel and aluminum, but does not cover the proposed reductions in clean energy tax credits currently under consideration in the Congressional Republican budget bill—which, if passed, would pose another significant threat to the US PV industry.

The tax credits for clean energy projects and factories included by former US President Biden in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have supported the industry's growth over the past three years. However, SEIA warns that the tax bill passed by the US House of Representatives last month could undermine the industry's prosperity.

In the most recent quarter, solar power accounted for 69% of new power generation capacity in the US.

According to the Q2 2025 Solar Market Insight Report jointly released by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, the industry's installations reached 10.8 gigawatts (GW) in Q1 this year, a 7% decrease from the same period last year, but still near historic highs. Meanwhile, eight new or expanded solar factories commenced operations in Q1 across several states, including Texas and Ohio.

In an interview, SEIA President Ross Hopper stated, "Overall, these are positive signs. But look at all that could happen next—Congress is threatening all this progress.

During last year's election campaign, Trump pledged to repeal the clean energy tax credits in the IRA, calling them costly, unnecessary, and harmful to businesses. As part of his energy dominance agenda, the Trump administration, upon taking office this year, has been seeking to bolster domestic fossil fuel production while excluding renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

The report shows that new solar installations in the US PV industry are expected to reach 48.6 GW this year but will decline to 43.5 GW by 2030.

The report notes that demand from corporate buyers for utility-scale projects is driving the industry's momentum, but concerns about federal policies will constrain growth.

In Q1, residential new installations decreased by 13% to 1.1 GW. The sector has recently been plagued by high interest rates, tariffs, and unfavorable state policies, but the segment is expected to grow from 2025 to 2030 as rising electricity costs make it more attractive to consumers.

In Q1, the utility sector saw new installations of 9 gigawatts. Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and California accounted for 65% of the new installations.