[SMM Tin Midday Review: Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region; SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Rangebound in the Afternoon]​​ The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened slightly higher this morning and then oscillated and pulled back​​. By the midday close, it was quoted at 264,020 yuan/mt, up 0.44% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt mark. Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region​​: Although the production resumption process was initiated at the end of April, the actual ramp-up time may be postponed to July due to strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and prolonged processing times for mining licenses. Market rumors suggest that the first batch of export licenses has been issued, but it will still take 1.5-2 months for ore to be transported to China, with port arrivals in June expected to decline significantly. Limited Increase in African Supply​​: Although the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has resumed production in phases, its 2025 production guidance has been revised down from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Moreover, with a shipping period of 45-60 days, the actual port arrivals in June will provide insufficient support for domestic smelting operations.​​ Midday Summary​​: SHFE tin prices are short-term influenced by disruptions in ore supply and fluctuating macro sentiment. However, the off-season demand and inventory pressure limit the rebound height, and prices may fluctuate rangebound in the afternoon.

Spot trading remained generally sluggish, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuating rangebound [SMM Morning Tin News] Macro: (1) Beijing: Encourage R&D and launch of high-end new car models with a stronger sense of technology and fashion to explore overseas markets (bullish ★) (2) MIIT: Steadily advance three centralized rectifications, including "comprehensive rectification of 'cut-throat competition' in the NEV industry" (neutral) (3) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): It is expected that production and sales in June will remain in a state of relatively rapid growth with gradual deceleration (4) US tariffs - ① Japan's chief negotiator, Ryomasa Akazawa, plans to visit the US this week. ② Canadian Prime Minister provides details on defense spending. (neutral)

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Yuan/mt Mark for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract; Myanmar Mine Shipments Hindered, Offsetting Off-Season Consumption] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, affected by the off-season consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts heat up: US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, but ADP employment growth slowed down. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts diverged, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars. Sino-US economic and trade relations ease: High-level trade consultations between the two countries sent positive signals, alleviating market concerns about tariff policy adjustments and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Supported by Ore Supply Tightness and Macro Sentiment in the Short Term, but Rebound Limited by Off-Season Demand and Inventory Pressure]​​Tightness in tin ore supply persists​​: Although the Wa region of Myanmar initiated production resumption procedures at the end of April, the actual capacity release fell short of expectations due to strict inspections at the China-Myanmar border and slow progress in obtaining mining licenses. Despite phased production resumption at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the long transportation cycle for African ore sources (approximately 1.5-2 months) has limited port arrivals in June. Off-season effects emerge in the electronics industry​​: June is a traditional off-season for consumer electronics, with solder companies experiencing weaker orders MoM. Demand for PV welding strips has declined due to a slowdown in installation growth. However, accelerated substitution of domestic semiconductors and demand for AI chips have provided marginal support for high-purity tin.

Spot market trading weakened, while SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating upward trend [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Short-term "suspension of applications" for home appliance subsidies in multiple regions, mainly due to activity upgrades or ongoing research and formulation of policies for the next phase (bearish ★). (2) According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, from May 1-31, retail sales of passenger vehicles in the national market reached 1.93 million units, up 13% YoY from May last year and 10% MoM (bullish ★). (3) As consumers pursue higher-level display effects, a new round of market competition has emerged. It is estimated that OLED monitor shipments will increase by 80.6% YoY in 2025, with the penetration rate in the overall monitor market rising to 2%, and potentially reaching 5% by 2028. (4) Tariffs - ① Japanese media: The US has shown flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan. ② Sources: US and Indian negotiators may finalise tariff reductions and market access issues, reaching a provisional agreement. ③ Trump: A good trade agreement will be reached with Germany (neutral).

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Short-Term Supply Disruptions Persist, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract May Fluctuate Around 260,000-275,000 Yuan/mt] International Developments: - **US Policy Impact**: The trade protectionist policies (e.g., tariff hikes) that the Trump administration may implement could disrupt global supply chains, particularly limiting China's PV exports. However, rising expectations for US interest rate cuts (ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May) coupled with fiscal stimulus policies may drive economic recovery in H2, boosting demand for industrial metals. - **China's Policy Support**: China's ongoing "trade-in" policies continue to drive consumption of white goods and NEVs. Combined with RRR cuts by the PBOC, which released 1.175 trillion yuan in liquidity, these measures provide underlying support for industrial demand. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has been postponed until after May, and Indonesia's slow approval of tin export quotas have prolonged short-term supply disruptions. While increased ore output from Africa (e.g., the Mpama South project in the Congo) partially fills the gap, transportation bottlenecks limit actual port arrivals. Potential risks from US-China trade frictions and adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore export policies may trigger market risk-aversion sentiment. - **Short-Term Constraints**: Domestic smelters' raw material inventories remain low, and tin concentrate prices have risen amid expectations of a ban on mining in Myanmar. - **Medium-Term Growth**: Tin mining projects in Africa (Congo, Rwanda) and South America (Peru) have commenced production, but declining ore grades and rising environmental protection costs have constrained the pace of capacity expansion. - **Fluctuate Upward**: Supported by delayed Indonesian exports, postponed production resumptions in Myanmar, and recovering semiconductor demand, the most-traded SHFE tin contract may fluctuate around 260,000-275,000 yuan/mt. ...

[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Decline, with Supply from Myanmar Continuing to Shrink]: According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 53.86%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan continued to decline compared to the previous week and was nearly 10 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. The treatment charges (TCs) for tin concentrates with a 40% grade remained at historically low levels, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi was only 40.19%, consistently lower than that in Yunnan and down by approximately 15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap supply, with some capacities potentially exiting the market permanently. The reduction in scrap sources and the dual squeeze on costs have led to an increase in scrap recycling costs combined with a decline in tin concentrate TCs, driving up production costs for enterprises and undermining the profitability of refined tin recycling from scrap. According to sources, relevant Thai authorities have decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting from June 4. SMM understands that approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) of tin ore is transported from southern Myanmar to Thailand each month for transit into China. The Thai authorities' ban is expected to affect the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar in June.

Some traders have already depleted their inventory, and SHFE tin prices continue to fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Content of the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state: Both sides should make good use of the established economic and trade consultation mechanisms to strive for a win-win outcome; the US side will continue to adhere to the one-China policy. (Bullish ★) (2) Musk stated that Tesla (TSLA.O)'s Dojo AI training computer is making progress. We will launch the next-generation AI supercomputer, Dojo 2, later this year. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Japanese media: The US has shown flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan. ② Sources: US and Indian negotiators may finalise tariff reductions and market access issues, reaching a provisional agreement. ③ Trump: A good trade deal will be reached with Germany. (Neutral)