At the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025 - Coal Session, SMM Senior Consultant Amy Dong delivered a speech titled "Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows".
Global coal production is expected to decline after reaching a record high in 2024.
In 2024, global coal production exceeded 9 billion mt for the first time, hitting a new peak, but it is anticipated to gradually decline in the coming years.
The main influencing factors are as follows:
The global energy transition is accelerating. The rapid development of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is gradually replacing coal as the primary source of electricity.
With the establishment of the "dual carbon" goals, some countries globally, such as Germany and the UK, have gradually restricted or phased out coal mining and use.
The shift in the global economic development model and the increasing proportion of service and high-tech industries (which have relatively lower energy demands) have further curbed the growth of coal demand.
Prior to 2024, global coal production had been on a growth trajectory, but it is expected to decline by 2027, except in India.
In 2025, China's total coal production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, while India will continue to experience rapid growth in the coming years. The Indian Ministry of Coal has set coal production targets: an increase of over 40% from the 2025-26 fiscal year to the 2029-30 fiscal year. In the next few years, other major coal-producing countries will maintain a downward trend in production.
SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2024
According to SMM's 2024 global coal shipping data, the coal transported by Indonesia and Colombia is mainly thermal coal and lignite used for power generation.
Austria, the US, Canada, and Russia are the major suppliers of coking coal, primarily serving consumers in the Asian steel industry.
Coal transportation is mainly related to the resource and demand structures of each country.
It also elaborated on topics such as SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2022 - (Impact of Geopolitical Emergencies - 1), SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2024 - (Impact of Geopolitical Emergencies - 2), etc.
Future coal demand will still be concentrated in Asian countries.
Improved railway capacity will boost the transportation and supply of Mongolian coal to countries such as China and India in the future.
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