China Likely to Peak Carbon Emissions Before 2030, Ex-Official Says

China may reach its carbon emissions peak several years before its 2030 target, according to Zhu Guangyao, former Vice Minister of Finance. Speaking at the Nikkei Future of Asia forum, he cited CarbonBrief research showing China’s emissions fell 1% over the past year, including a 1.6% drop in the first quarter of 2025.

China, the world’s largest emitter, has made major investments in clean energy and is seeing steady emission reductions. Zhu’s comments highlight growing optimism about an earlier peak, though China has previously stressed the difficulty of achieving its 2030 pledge.

While an earlier peak would help global climate goals, scientists note that China must follow with significant emission cuts to mitigate severe climate impacts.