[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Yuan/mt Mark for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract; Myanmar Mine Shipments Hindered, Offsetting Off-Season Consumption] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, affected by the off-season consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts heat up: US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, but ADP employment growth slowed down. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts diverged, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars. Sino-US economic and trade relations ease: High-level trade consultations between the two countries sent positive signals, alleviating market concerns about tariff policy adjustments and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Supported by Ore Supply Tightness and Macro Sentiment in the Short Term, but Rebound Limited by Off-Season Demand and Inventory Pressure]​​Tightness in tin ore supply persists​​: Although the Wa region of Myanmar initiated production resumption procedures at the end of April, the actual capacity release fell short of expectations due to strict inspections at the China-Myanmar border and slow progress in obtaining mining licenses. Despite phased production resumption at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the long transportation cycle for African ore sources (approximately 1.5-2 months) has limited port arrivals in June. Off-season effects emerge in the electronics industry​​: June is a traditional off-season for consumer electronics, with solder companies experiencing weaker orders MoM. Demand for PV welding strips has declined due to a slowdown in installation growth. However, accelerated substitution of domestic semiconductors and demand for AI chips have provided marginal support for high-purity tin.

This week, the ferrous metals series opened lower and closed higher, with coking coal rising by over 12% and coke by over 7%. On the macro front, at the beginning of the week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The futures market opened lower. Mid-week, there was a series of news about coking coal, including a tariff hike on Mongolian coal, followed by production cuts in the Sanxi region and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. These developments brought about a rebound in coking coal and coke, which had been experiencing a smooth decline and were undervalued earlier. At the same time, they also drove up other ferrous metals series products. However, the fundamentals of coking coal remained weak, and the medium and long-term outlook remained bearish...

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum: Secondary Aluminum Prices Under Pressure, Following the Decline; Market Sentiment Grows Cautious on the Eve of Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Listing] After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic aluminum scrap market continued to hover at highs. As of June 5, spot primary aluminum prices first declined, then rose, and finally made minor adjustments. SMM A00 closed at 20,250 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from Thursday last week, with intensified fluctuations during the week.