[SMM Tin Midday Review: Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region; SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Rangebound in the Afternoon]​​ The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened slightly higher this morning and then oscillated and pulled back​​. By the midday close, it was quoted at 264,020 yuan/mt, up 0.44% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt mark. Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region​​: Although the production resumption process was initiated at the end of April, the actual ramp-up time may be postponed to July due to strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and prolonged processing times for mining licenses. Market rumors suggest that the first batch of export licenses has been issued, but it will still take 1.5-2 months for ore to be transported to China, with port arrivals in June expected to decline significantly. Limited Increase in African Supply​​: Although the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has resumed production in phases, its 2025 production guidance has been revised down from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Moreover, with a shipping period of 45-60 days, the actual port arrivals in June will provide insufficient support for domestic smelting operations.​​ Midday Summary​​: SHFE tin prices are short-term influenced by disruptions in ore supply and fluctuating macro sentiment. However, the off-season demand and inventory pressure limit the rebound height, and prices may fluctuate rangebound in the afternoon.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Yuan/mt Mark for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract; Myanmar Mine Shipments Hindered, Offsetting Off-Season Consumption] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, affected by the off-season consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts heat up: US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, but ADP employment growth slowed down. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts diverged, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars. Sino-US economic and trade relations ease: High-level trade consultations between the two countries sent positive signals, alleviating market concerns about tariff policy adjustments and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Supported by Ore Supply Tightness and Macro Sentiment in the Short Term, but Rebound Limited by Off-Season Demand and Inventory Pressure]​​Tightness in tin ore supply persists​​: Although the Wa region of Myanmar initiated production resumption procedures at the end of April, the actual capacity release fell short of expectations due to strict inspections at the China-Myanmar border and slow progress in obtaining mining licenses. Despite phased production resumption at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the long transportation cycle for African ore sources (approximately 1.5-2 months) has limited port arrivals in June. Off-season effects emerge in the electronics industry​​: June is a traditional off-season for consumer electronics, with solder companies experiencing weaker orders MoM. Demand for PV welding strips has declined due to a slowdown in installation growth. However, accelerated substitution of domestic semiconductors and demand for AI chips have provided marginal support for high-purity tin.

This week, the ferrous metals series opened lower and closed higher, with coking coal rising by over 12% and coke by over 7%. On the macro front, at the beginning of the week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The futures market opened lower. Mid-week, there was a series of news about coking coal, including a tariff hike on Mongolian coal, followed by production cuts in the Sanxi region and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. These developments brought about a rebound in coking coal and coke, which had been experiencing a smooth decline and were undervalued earlier. At the same time, they also drove up other ferrous metals series products. However, the fundamentals of coking coal remained weak, and the medium and long-term outlook remained bearish...