Off-season arrives, copper pipe & tube production decreases

Copper Pipe & Tube Enterprises' Operating Rate in May Was 81.76%
According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in May was 81.76%, down 1.96 percentage points MoM and 1.56 percentage points YoY. The actual operating rate of copper pipe & tube in May was higher than expected. Following the Sino-US tariff negotiations, orders that were originally destined for North America but had been stalled gradually resumed, with large enterprises and copper pipe & tube operating rates in Southeast Asia exceeding expectations. According to feedback from equipment suppliers to home appliance enterprises, the operating rate of factories in Southeast Asia increased by 30% YoY recently. In terms of domestic sales and exports, in the leap June of 2025, the hot summer has not yet arrived. Although air conditioner production schedules are still increasing slightly YoY, actual sales performance has declined significantly compared to last year. In particular, air conditioner manufacturers currently have a large amount of finished product inventories, and delivery dates have been extended, leading to a slowdown in the demand for copper pipe & tube cargo pick-up.

Raw Material Inventory Ratio of Copper Pipe & Tube Enterprises in May Was 3.72%
The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in May was 3.72%, down 0.96 percentage points MoM. Spot premiums jumped initially and then pulled back in May. With a decline in orders, copper pipe & tube factories reduced their stockpiling of raw material inventories, with days of inventories at only 1.15.

Copper Pipe & Tube Enterprises' Operating Rate Expected to Be 80.22% in June
According to SMM data, the expected operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June 2025 is 80.22%, down 1.54 percentage points MoM and up 3.45 percentage points YoY. In June 2025, the domestic sales schedule for household air conditioners is 13.66 million units, up 29.3% from the actual domestic sales performance in the same period last year; the export schedule is 6.84 million units, down 18.3% from the actual export performance in the same period last year. Overall, export schedules in June will drag down the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises. However, with relatively high domestic sales schedules currently, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June will also show a YoY increase. In the future, as the off-season approaches, domestic sales schedules will decline significantly, and the operating rate of copper pipe & tube suppliers primarily serving the domestic market will show a seasonal decline. The export market will also not continue to surge. Even with the current suspension of high tariffs, there is currently no significant high expectation for overseas demand. It is expected to fall below 80% in July and may only be between 70% and 75% in August.