When it rains, it pours: Global copper concentrate supply-demand balance results after KK Mine earthquake [SMM Analysis]

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At the end of May, Chinese smelters started mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta. In the first round of negotiations this year, mining companies have offered smelters a quotation with -$15 , which is far lower than the $0 leaked by the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group stated that this negotiation is extremely difficult, and it is arduous to strive for a favorable figure.

Coincidentally, a mine earthquake occurred at the KK Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), directly causing severe damage to production at the Kakula mining area. After the company announced the suspension of underground mining at the Kakula copper mine on May 20, 2025, the management has been promoting the phased resumption of production on the west and east sides of the mine. According to the current drainage progress, underground mining is expected to restart on the west side of the mine later this month, and this area remains dry. The mine has ordered 4 high-capacity drainage pumps and will order and deploy more in the future. The delivery and installation of surface pumps are expected to be completed within 90 days. This week, Ivanhoe Mines released the latest 2025 Kamoa-Kakula copper production guidance of 370 to 420 kt, a 28% decrease from the production guidance of 520 to 580kt released at the beginning of the year.

Misfortunes never come singly. In early June, a mechanical failure occurred at Teck Resources' Carmen de Andacollo copper mine, requiring the shutdown and repair of the SAG mill. Production is expected to be interrupted for about a month due to maintenance. Carmen de Andacollo is expected to produce 50,000 metric tons of copper in 2025. Hudbay Minerals stated that due to frequent forest wildfires in Canada, it has suspended operations at the Snow Lake polymetallic mine and will resume full production when conditions permit. Snow Lake is expected to produce 10 kt in 2025.

After considering recent supply-side disruptions, SMM has updated the latest global supply-demand balance results for sulfide copper concentrates.

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