LCO: Raw Material Cost Transmission and Battery Cell Stockpiling Drive Price Increases, Inventory Buffer Suppresses Urgent Order Demand

This week, spot prices of refined cobalt fluctuated upward. Over the weekend, the DRC announced detailed rules for cobalt quota allocation, with the quotas obtained by Chinese enterprises slightly lower than market expectations, sparking concerns over tightening cobalt supply from China in the future. Driven by this sentiment, domestic futures prices fluctuated upward this week. On the supply side, most smelters adopted a wait-and-see approach, generally suspending price quotations, while some producers raised ex-factory prices. Traders followed the futures market by increasing spot quotations. On the demand side, performance remained relatively sluggish, with downstream buyers continuing to make just-in-time procurement, and actual transactions did not see a significant increase. Overall, the rapid rise in cobalt prices has already exerted some restraint on downstream demand, resulting in a significant price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts. However, considering that refined cobalt can be used as raw material for reverse smelting into cobalt salts, refined cobalt prices are expected to gradually converge toward the reverse smelting cost of cobalt salts.

This week, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products continued to hold up well. In terms of supply, spot availability from mainstream miners and traders remained tight, compounded by difficulties in replenishing cobalt raw materials from the DRC before the Chinese New Year. Most enterprises remained optimistic about the market outlook and continued to suspend offers. On the demand side, overall market changes were limited. Downstream smelters gradually raised their inquiry prices, but constrained by suppliers' refusal to budge on prices, actual transactions remained sluggish, sustaining a "price without market" pattern. Given the expectation that domestic cobalt raw material supply will remain structurally tight in the long term, cobalt intermediate product prices are anticipated to retain further upward momentum.

Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to rise rapidly this week. Supply side, the cobalt export quota policy announced by the DRC over the weekend heightened smelters' concerns about future raw material supply, prompting enterprises to generally continue suspending offers and further raising their intended selling prices. Among them, the intended price for cobalt sulphate produced from intermediate products was raised to around 91,000–93,000 yuan/mt, while the intended price for MHP and scrap-derived cobalt sulphate also generally increased to approximately 86,000–88,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, overall market changes were relatively small this week, with some cathode enterprises still making small-scale stockpiling due to concerns about potential cobalt supply shortages. However, ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 enterprises remained cautious in their purchasing activities, constrained by the rapid price increase of cobalt sulphate and their own orders not yet being fully locked in. Overall, driven by the continuous rise in raw material costs and long-term stockpiling demand from downstream sectors, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.

[SMM Lithium Battery Electrolyte Market Weekly Review: Electrolyte Prices Held Steady This Week (10.13-10.16)] From October 13 to 16, 2025, electrolyte prices remained stable. However, due to significant increases in raw material prices, electrolyte prices were expected to rise subsequently.