This week, the ferrous metals series opened lower and closed higher, with coking coal rising by over 12% and coke by over 7%. On the macro front, at the beginning of the week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The futures market opened lower. Mid-week, there was a series of news about coking coal, including a tariff hike on Mongolian coal, followed by production cuts in the Sanxi region and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. These developments brought about a rebound in coking coal and coke, which had been experiencing a smooth decline and were undervalued earlier. At the same time, they also drove up other ferrous metals series products. However, the fundamentals of coking coal remained weak, and the medium and long-term outlook remained bearish...

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Inventory: Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 415,000 mt] Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 415,000 mt, up 40,000 mt or 10.7% WoW. Coke inventory at steel mills was 2.587 million mt, down 32,000 mt or 1.2% WoW. Coke inventory at ports was 1.4 million mt, down 20,000 mt or 1.4% WoW. Coking coal inventory at coking plants was 2.528 million mt, down 31,000 mt or 1.2% WoW.

Overall, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total exports of HRC to Brazil in the first four months of 2025 amounted to only 211,000 mt, accounting for 2.70% of China's total HRC exports, indicating a limited overall impact. Data from 2025 shows that the top five countries for China's HRC exports were Vietnam, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and the UAE. Among them, Vietnam and South Korea have successively initiated anti-dumping investigations against China's HRC. Vietnam has already imposed provisional anti-dumping measures, and there have even been recent rumors that wide coils, which were previously excluded from the anti-dumping scope, might be added to the anti-dumping list again. On March 4 this year, South Korea officially announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against China's hot-rolled steel coils. Currently, China's HRC, the largest category in terms of steel export share, is facing an increasing number of anti-dumping investigations. Perhaps for export traders, exploring ways to increase exports of products that are not yet subject to anti-dumping measures could be a wise strategy...

[SMM Daily Coke Market Briefing] In terms of supply, due to profit contraction and shipping bottlenecks, the production enthusiasm of some coke enterprises has declined, leading to a contraction in coke supply. On the buyer side, the recent downturn in the finished steel market has narrowed steel mill profits. Additionally, an increase in blast furnace shutdowns and maintenance at some steel mills has led to a continuous decline in pig iron production. Coupled with high coke inventory levels at steel mills, there has been a move to control the arrival of coke. In summary, the third round of price reductions has been implemented, and the market's bearish sentiment has been somewhat relieved. Next week, the coke market may operate in the doldrums.

This week, the total inventory of construction steel continued to decline. Specifically, the total rebar inventory decreased by 1.82% WoW, while the total wire rod inventory increased by 0.68% WoW. On the supply side, the operating rates of both BF and EAF steel mills declined this week. Currently, due to reduced profitability, some steel mills in Shaanxi have halted production for maintenance, leading to a decrease in pig iron production. The production situation of EAF steel mills varied. One electric furnace plant in east China resumed production, while in the southwest region, due to electricity subsidies, market profitability improved, prompting some electric furnace plants to extend their operating hours.

[SMM Daily Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking enterprises maintained a relatively high operating rate, with some accumulating inventory and actively shipping products, but their sentiment remained weak. On the demand side, steel mills maintained normal production, with their coke inventory within a reasonable range. Coupled with the off-season in the market leading to average steel sales, some steel mills controlled the rhythm of coke arrivals and had a strong desire to bargain down prices. Overall, the fundamentals of the coke market remained relatively loose, with some steel mills already proposing a third round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke market will be in the doldrums.

The US White House issued a statement saying that President Trump had signed an order to raise tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 a.m. on the 4th, Eastern Time. The statement indicated that tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%.

[SMM Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the profitability of most coking enterprises has improved, and their production enthusiasm is moderate, with the actual supply remaining relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by the traditional off-season, steel mills are facing increased inventory pressure on finished products, and pig iron production continues to decline, resulting in reduced rigid demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke are bearish. However, driven by market sentiment in the futures market, market confidence has increased. This week, coke prices may remain in the doldrums.

China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 48.3, falling below the threshold for the first time since October 2024. The forecast was 50.7, and the previous reading was 50.4.

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, this week (from May 31 to June 6), the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production was...