SMM Steel, September 30 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments in mainstream markets this week were 185,700 mt, down 21.88% WoW

[SMM Daily Coal and Coke Briefing] Steel mills in Tangshan, Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and other regions raised prices for stamped wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/mt, stamped dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/mt, top-charged wet-quenched coke by 70 yuan/mt, and top-charged dry-quenched coke by 75 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on October 1, 2025. In terms of supply, coke producers faced compressed profit margins, with some incurring losses and slightly reducing production, leading to a decline in coke supply and low inventory levels. Demand side, pre-holiday restocking by steel mills was largely completed, but high hot metal output supported rigid coke demand, favoring coke price increases. Overall, the first round of coke price hikes is expected to be implemented, but sluggish end-user finished steel consumption limited the upside for coke prices, with prices likely to stabilize after the holiday.

According to SMM data, the average weekly hot-rolled coil production in September was 4.0384 million mt, slightly higher than the same period last year, but down 0.9% MoM from August.

In 2024, China commissioned a total of 17 cold-rolling and coating steel production lines, with a cumulative capacity of approximately 8.39 million mt.

[SMM Daily Coal and Coke Brief] Steel mills in Tangshan, Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and other regions raised prices for tamped wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/mt, tamped dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/mt, top-charged wet-quenched coke by 70 yuan/mt, and top-charged dry-quenched coke by 75 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on October 1, 2025. In terms of supply, coke producers maintained normal production, and coke supply remained stable, but due to poor profitability, there was a slight production cut, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. Demand side, hot metal production remained high, and some steel mills still had a slight restocking demand, supporting coke demand, but constrained by generally weak end-user finished product consumption, some mills restocked mainly based on rigid demand. Overall, coke fundamentals are tight, the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, and the first round of coke price hikes has largely been implemented, pending official confirmation from mainstream steel mills.

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Supply side, coke producers' profits have further narrowed recently, but they maintain normal production; additionally, coke inventory at coke plants has dropped to low levels, with some producers showing increased reluctance to sell. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mills continues to rebound, coupled with pre-holiday restocking demand from some mills, providing solid support for coke's rigid demand. However, narrowed steel mill profits and weak end-user finished steel consumption have led some mills to adopt a cautious purchasing stance. Overall, coke fundamentals have improved, but constrained by sluggish end-user steel consumption, the short-term standoff between coke producers and steel mills will persist, and the implementation of the first coke price increase will still require time.

According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative steel exports from January to August 2025 reached 86.737 million mt, up 18.73% YoY. Saudi Arabia saw the largest cumulative increase, up 1.5224 million mt YoY, a rise of 61.66%. Among all steel product categories exported to Saudi Arabia, HRC dominated, accounting for 23%, followed by medium-thickness plates at 18%, while coated products and steel billet also held significant shares at 18% and 15%, respectively.

In January-August 2025, China's exports of sheets & plates decreased by 1% YoY. On September 8, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.51 million mt of steel in August 2025, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. Cumulative steel exports from January to August totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY. Among these, China exported 5.2037 million mt of steel sheets & plates in August 2025, down 501,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 8.8% MoM. Cumulative exports of sheets & plates from January to August reached 44.6326 million mt, down 1.2% YoY.

This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. On Monday, five departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)", setting an average annual growth target for the steel industry's value-added at around 4% over the next two years, which was positive for market sentiment. However, demand for finished products was not well released, making it difficult for futures to rise. In the latter part of the week, six departments announced a strict ban on new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, requiring that new or renovation projects must formulate capacity replacement plans. Expectations of anti-involution resurfaced, coupled with MoM improvement in finished product inventory data, leading to a retreat of bear funds and a slight rise in futures. However, by the weekend, both the US and the EU announced they are expected to impose new tariffs on China, causing futures to decline again. On the spot market side, suppressed by futures, pre-holiday procurement demand this week was not significant...

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Supply side, recent increases in coking coal costs have squeezed coke producers' margins, prompting them to initiate a coke price hike. However, without significant losses, production enthusiasm remains moderate, and supply is basically stable. With the National Day holiday approaching, coke shipments have improved. Demand side, steel mills' profitability is moderate, and hot metal production remains high. Coupled with the upcoming holiday, there is some restocking demand for coke. However, with continued inventory buildup in steel products, buyers are resistant to the coke price hike. Overall, pre-holiday restocking room is limited. In the short term, the coke market is expected to remain in a deadlock, though the first round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented.