Downstream willingness to restock at lower prices has decreased, while SHFE tin prices continue to fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on June 5, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) edged higher during the night session, closing at 258,940 yuan/mt, up 1.49% from the previous day.

Macro: (1) GlobalFoundries, a US semiconductor wafer foundry company, announced plans to invest $16 billion to enhance its semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities at its facilities in New York and Vermont. (Bullish ★) (2) China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC) is undergoing a spin-off, with its automotive business being separated into an independent central state-owned enterprise. (Bullish ★) (3) Jean-Marc Chery, CEO of STMicroelectronics, stated on Wednesday that the French-Italian chipmaker has seen signs of an upturn, with market demand expected to increase, which will boost its performance in the coming quarters. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① Reports suggest that a US-Canada agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. ② EU trade official: Negotiations with the US are progressing steadily in the right direction. ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short time. ④ US Commerce Secretary: Analysis and formulation of tariff standards for aircraft parts will be completed by month-end; there will be no mutual tariff and barrier reductions with Vietnam. ⑤ Mexico will announce measures next week in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs. (Neutral)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is tightening. As June begins, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices hit a bottom of 250,000 yuan/mt, orders from most downstream enterprises have picked up, and purchase willingness has increased. (Bullish ★)

Spot Market: As prices climb, downstream enterprises' willingness to restock on dips has decreased. Some end-users are making just-in-time procurement. Traders reported that yesterday's transactions were weaker than at the beginning of the week, and some traders' inventories have been cleared.