Lithium Carbonate Prices Face Risk of Falling to 50,000 yuan/mt before 2026

On May 26, lithium carbonate futures contract briefly fell to 59,920 yuan/mt; on May 27, it further dropped to 59,720 yuan/mt, though it closed at 60,920 yuan/mt, the 60,000 yuan/mt threshold had been breached twice.

In the spot market, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 61,950 yuan/mt on May 26, a decline of over 10% from the beginning of May.

Data indicates that the global lithium industry is expected to face a supply surplus of 265,000 mt and 207,000 mt LCE in 2025 and 2026, respectively, primarily due to the concentrated release of capacity stimulated by high lithium prices. Additionally, as of May 15, the spot inventory of lithium carbonate reached 132,000 mt, with smelter inventory accounting for over 50%, creating sustained selling pressure.

Some analysts believe that the growth in end-use demand for NEVs has not been effectively transmitted to the lithium chemicals sector, leading to inventory backlogs at downstream battery makers and automakers, and weak purchase willingness.

On the cost side, domestic and overseas lithium ore prices have continued to weaken, while salt lake capacity has been seasonally released, weakening the cost support for lithium chemicals production. The operating rate of spodumene production lines has declined (from a daily average of 1,400 mt to 1,200 mt), but the increased output from salt lake lithium extraction has offset the impact of production cuts.

Regarding future trends, the market expects lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate between 58,000 yuan/mt and 65,000 yuan/mt within the next 1-3 months, and potentially fall to 50,000 yuan/mt before 2026.

Please note that this news is sourced from https://libattery.ofweek.com/2025-05/ART-36002-8120-30663751.html and translated by SMM.