In recent years, zinc prices have fluctuated largely around the supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting. With a significant increase in zinc concentrate supply expected for this year, prices may face downward pressure as we expected at the beginning of this year. This is the second report of two, which reviews Q1 production data from major overseas zinc mines from the Asia, Oceania and the Americas, and provides updated forecasts for full-year output.
According to SMM data, Q1 2025 zinc concentrate production totals 2.79 million tonnes — down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 2.6% year-on-year. Here China production accounts for 0.775 million tonnes, suggesting a 10% quarter-on-quarter decrease due to traditional Chinese off-season, and a slight year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Meanwhile, ex-China regions contributes the rest 2.015 million tonnes, that's a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter drop but also a 5.7% increase year-on-year.
Output increases were observed at certain mines due to higher ore grades, improved milling volumes, zinc-favoured mine sequencing, new production ramp-ups and suspended mine restarts. At the same time, however, some operations experienced declines due to weather conditions, natural disasters, falling grades, or maintenance activities.
Production breakdown by regions:
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Asia (ex-China): Asian production totals up to 259 ktonnes, down 4.1% quarter-on-quarter but up 0.7% year-on-year. Apart from winter weather conditions, the declined production from some small mines contributes to the QoQ fall. The Dairi zinc and lead mine project in Indonesia, a joint venture between China's state-owned China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co. (NFC) and Bumi Resources Minerals, has met with fierce opposition from local residents who fear the project poses unacceptable risks to their lives and environment. Residents of Indonesia's Dairi Regency gathered and delivered a petition letter to the Chinese Embassy in Jakarta on 23 May 2025, calling for the withdrawal of investment for the Dairi Prima Mineral mine project. Residents stressed the ruling by the Indonesian Supreme Court in 2024 to revoke the mine’s environmental permit. Nonetheless, the company has insisted that the project will move forward. The mine has a nameplate processing capacity of around 1 Mtpa, which is anticipated to bring around 110 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate once put into production.
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Oceania: Production in this region totals up to 259 ktonees, down 8.8% quarter-on-quarter but up 3.5% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, Glencore's Australian asset, Mount Isa and McArthur River were heavily impacted by natural disasters and therefore reduced their amount of output, but production in this year has been fixed year-on-year. Mount Isa produced 69 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate in the past quarter, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, while McArthur River output 63.7 ktonnes of zinc inc concentrates with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. However, MMG's assets were affected by disaster reasons this year. Dugald River produced 40.9 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, a 8.7% year-on-year drop, due to a wildfire in January and a flood in February and March. MMG declares that they will switch to orebodies with higher zinc grades in Q2. MMG's Rosebery produced 10.9 ktonnes of zinc in concentrates in the quarter, because of the mining sequence and wildfire reasons. Maintenance works carried out in March also contributed to the decline in production.
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North America: Production in this region totals up to 376 ktonees, down by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter and 8.8% year-on-year. Red Dog operated by Teck is suffering from lower ore grade and recoveries. It produced 116.8 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9% and year-on-year decrease of 20%. However, the 2025 annual production guidance remains at 430-470 ktonnes. Recent exploration works have identified a new orebody nearby which can hopefully extend the life of the mine up to 2031. Canadian production is also falling in the quarter by 48.4% to 13 ktonnes, mainly because of the cut in production from Glencore's Kidd, affected by the power blackout and mine maintenance. Penole's mines in Mexico collectively produced 57.7 ktonnes, down by 25.7% quarter-on-quarter and 13.86% year-on-year, because of grade decline and milled volume decline.
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South America: Production in this region totals up to 376 ktonees, up by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 6.1% year-on-year. Antamina is switching is mining sequence to prioritise mining of copper-zinc ore, it produced 91.3 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, up by 13.9% quarter-on-quarter and 41.38% year-on-year. They are now expecting a decrease in zinc concentrate output in Q4 because they will switch back to focus on copper-only ore then, so now the anticipated annual production is around 350 ktonnes.
Regarding 2025 production forecast, 2 key risks are worth caution: first, unexpected disruptions such as strikes, accidents, or lower-than-expected grades may curb production; second, weaker zinc prices may disincentivize marginal output. Taking these factors into account, we have revised our 2025 global zinc concentrate growth estimate down to around 500,000 tonnes, implying a year-on-year increase of 4.99%, bringing total output to 12.298 million tonnes.
Author: Yueang He, Zinc & Lead Analyst of SMM UK
Contact: yueanghe@smm.cn | +44 (0)7522 173725
