According to SMM statistics, the inventory of aluminum billets in major domestic consumption areas stood at 127,700 mt on June 3, a decrease of 600 mt from last Thursday, with inventory remaining firmly at a three-year low for the same period. After the holiday, aluminum prices pulled back sharply. In the morning session of today's aluminum billet market, there was an attempt to leverage the momentum for an upward adjustment, but due to poor performance in rigid demand, downstream buyers remained cautious in procurement. Suppliers showed discrepancies in their mid-session quotes, with those facing greater pressure to sell lowering their quotes to realize cash. Overall, transaction performance was mediocre. Today, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported processing fees of 350/400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt; the Wuxi market reported processing fees of 320/400 yuan/mt, unchanged; and the Nanchang region reported processing fees of 300/350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt. (Unit: yuan/mt)

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

In October 2024, Guinean customs authorities suspended bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), due to unresolved issues with the Guinean government, chiefly around concerns over GAC’s failure to progress on its commitment to build a domestic alumina refinery.

[Daily Commentary on ADC12 Prices: Aluminum Prices Maintain Downward Trend, Secondary Aluminum Prices Continue to Decline] Today, the SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,120 yuan/mt. The secondary aluminum market continued to follow the decline, with the domestic SMM ADC12 price dropping by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Social Inventory Buildup After Holiday, Slight Improvement in Central China Today]

Guinea has just made a move that could send tremors through global commodity corridors, cancelling from 50 plus to 129 mineral exploration permits in a single sweep.

Futures Market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,604.5/mt. After fluctuating considerably to reach an intraday low, it surged straight up to a high of $9,636.5/mt, then fluctuated downward. Near the close, it hit a low of $9,578/mt before finally closing at $9,615/mt, marking a 1.24% increase.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Escalating International Trade Frictions May Limit Domestic Price Declines Due to Resilient Consumption] Macro side, escalating China-US trade tensions and EU's concerns over US aluminum tariff hikes (to 50%) intensified market uncertainties. However, China's May manufacturing PMI rebound and improved export indicators provided demand support, with economic resilience potentially limiting declines. Aluminum prices faced short-term pressure, likely remaining in the doldrums. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained stable. Notably, increased liquid aluminum alloying ratios at some north China smelters reduced ingot casting volumes, affecting arrivals at major consumption hubs. Cost side, aluminum production costs rose WoW, with the average immediate complete cost reaching approximately 17,200 yuan/mt as of last Thursday, up 258 yuan/mt WoW. This 1.5% WoW increase primarily stemmed from ore supply disruptions driving alumina prices higher, squeezing smelter margins. Demand side, seasonal weakness emerged in some downstream sectors, with PV-related aluminum demand declining and automotive material demand expected to soften mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remained lackluster, though aluminum wire and cable operating rates stayed elevated thanks to State Grid orders. Overall, while domestic macro sentiment remained positive, overseas uncertainties persisted. Fundamentals-wise, faster-than-expected aluminum ingot inventory drawdowns supported prices and spot premiums. Though seasonal weakness appeared in certain industries, the overall demand decline proved milder than anticipated, maintaining resilience. Subsequent focus should center on inventory and demand dynamics, with domestic aluminum prices likely to fluctuate rangebound amid mixed factors.