[SMM Analysis: How is the Expected Production of Primary Lead in June Affected by Tightened Raw Material Supply and Overhauls?]

SMM May 30 Report: In May 2025, the national production of primary lead showed a slight upward trend, increasing by 2.39 percentage points MoM and 14.66 percentage points YoY. The cumulative production of primary lead from January to May 2025 increased by 8.41 percentage points YoY.
It is understood that in May, primary lead smelters resumed production in a relatively concentrated manner after completing overhauls in April, with smelters in regions such as central China, south China, and south-west China all experiencing certain increases in production. Among them, smelters in south China saw significant production increases, mainly due to the conclusion of environmental protection inspections the previous month and the replenishment of raw material shortages, enabling smelters to resume production as scheduled and resulting in a substantial increase in output. Although smelters in east China, north-west China, and south-west China entered routine overhauls or made short-term production adjustments during this period, the impact on production was limited and did not alter the upward trend in primary lead production for the month.
Looking ahead to June, more primary lead smelters are expected to undergo overhauls, mainly concentrated in regions such as south-west China, east China, and north China. On the one hand, primary lead smelters typically enter a routine overhaul period from June to August each year, with some enterprises conducting overhauls as planned. Most of these enterprises are expected to halt equipment operations after mid-June, with a relatively significant reduction in production anticipated in late June. On the other hand, the price center of lead gradually shifted downward in late May, and spot lead prices fell below 16,500 yuan/mt by month-end, dampening the production enthusiasm of smelters. Coupled with factors such as tightened lead concentrate supply and persistently high scrap battery prices, some enterprises are expected to make certain production adjustments. Overall, it is anticipated that primary lead production in June will decrease by approximately 3 percentage points MoM.