Price spread between domestic and overseas markets narrows, alumina import window gradually opens [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 29

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,985 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,990 yuan/mt, a low of 2,940 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,948 yuan/mt, down 43 yuan/mt or 1.44%. The open interest stood at 381,000 lots.

Ore: As of May 28, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $73.88/mt, up $0.18/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on May 28, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 253.31 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.

Warrant Daily Report: On May 28, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,303 mt from the previous trading day to 140,200 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,799 mt from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,303 mt from the previous trading day to 3,001 mt. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 5,105 mt from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 129,700 mt from the previous trading day.

Overseas Market: As of May 28, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.40/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.21. This price translates to approximately 3,269 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 0.46 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window is gradually opening.

Summary:

Last week, some enterprises in north China underwent maintenance, while some alumina refineries in south China completed maintenance, leading to a rebound in operating capacity. Overall, the national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.09 million mt WoW last week. In the near future, some new alumina enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance, while some enterprises are expected to complete maintenance and resume operating capacity. On the whole, the operating capacity is expected to continue to rebound slightly. Affected by the supply-side disruptions in the bauxite market, bauxite prices have risen, and the cost support for alumina is expected to strengthen. Coupled with the fact that the short-term fundamentals have not shifted to a surplus pattern, there is still upward momentum in prices. However, with the recovery of supply, the alumina price may encounter resistance, and the spot alumina price is expected to hold up well in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]