[SMM Analysis of Downstream Aluminum Sector: PMI of Aluminum Processing Industry Declined 1.8% MoM in May - Weak Domestic Demand Across Most Sectors, with Significant Structural Differentiation] The composite PMI of the aluminum processing industry in May was recorded at 49.8%, approaching the 50 mark but still in contraction territory, down 1.8 percentage points MoM and up 8.7% YoY.

[SMM Data：Casting Ingot Production in North China Declined Significantly in May, While Proportion of Liquid Aluminum Rose Sharply]According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in May 2025 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 3.4% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remained stable MoM in May, mainly due to the absence of new projects, maintenance, or production cuts during the period, coupled with sufficient supply of raw materials for aluminum production and moderate profits. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters rose significantly in May, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum increasing by 1.48 percentage points MoM to 75.5% this month. This was mainly due to reduced casting ingot production and an increased proportion of liquid aluminum in enterprises across multiple regions in north China. It is expected that the proportion will continue to fluctuate at highs in the future. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in May decreased by 6.15% YoY to approximately 913,000 mt.

[SMM Data: Casting Ingot Production in North China Declined Significantly in May, Proportion of Liquid Aluminum Rose Sharply] SMM reported on May 30: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in May 2025 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 3.4% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remained stable MoM in May, mainly due to the absence of new projects, maintenance, or production cuts during the period, coupled with sufficient supply of raw materials for aluminum and moderate profits. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters rose sharply in May, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum increasing by 1.48 percentage points MoM to 75.5% this month. This was mainly due to reduced casting ingot production and an increase in the proportion of liquid aluminum among enterprises in multiple regions of north China. It is expected that the proportion will continue to fluctuate at highs. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in May decreased by 6.15% YoY to approximately 913,000 mt.

[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: SHFE Aluminum's Price Center Falls, Market Gradually Sluggish on Final Trading Day Before Holiday] In the morning session today, the price center of SHFE aluminum fell to oscillate around RMB 20,150/mt, below the daily average line. Selling sentiment in east China has risen compared to before, coupled with the diversion of some cargoes originally destined for south China to east China, the market's premium was suppressed, and transactions were conducted at the SMM average price. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at RMB 20,290/mt, down RMB 90/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of RMB 110/mt against the June contract, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Customs data shows that in April 2025, China's aluminum wire and cable exports reached 21,300 mt, down 5.3% MoM and up 8.43% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports totaled 82,800 mt, a 16.08% increase compared to 71,400 mt in the same period of 2024 (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000). In terms of product structure, steel-core aluminum stranded wire exports reached 15,500 mt, accounting for 72.7%, with export volumes maintaining growth, reflecting the continued resilience of overseas power grid transformation demand. Meanwhile, aluminum stranded wire exports amounted to 5,800 mt, accounting for only 27.3%, indicating a relatively weak performance in export orders related to new energy infrastructure and other sectors.