Continuous rise in the US dollar index creates pressure, copper prices remain firm and are expected to stop falling and stabilize [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: May 29, 2025 08:56
[US dollar index rises continuously, forming pressure; copper prices remain firm and are expected to stop falling and stabilize] On the macro side, the US Fed meeting minutes indicate that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, and the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting regime in a high-risk environment have diminished. However, the market is optimistic that the trade agreement will improve the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, the weakening of the yen has pushed the US dollar index to rise continuously, suppressing copper prices.

       SMM May 29th News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,636.5/mt. It initially rose to a high of $9,645.0/mt, then fluctuated downward. It touched a low of $9,548.0/mt at the end of the session and finally closed at $9,566.0/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume was 14,383 lots, and open interest was 293,958 lots. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,010 yuan/mt. The price fluctuated at the beginning of the session, then declined continuously. It reached a high of 78,130 yuan/mt at the start and fell to a low of 77,700 yuan/mt at the end of the session, finally closing at 77,790 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. Trading volume was 26,397 lots, and open interest was 168,556 lots. On the macro side, the US Fed meeting minutes indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had increased, and the benefits of flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment had diminished. However, the market was optimistic that trade agreements would improve the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, the weakening yen pushed the US dollar index to rise continuously, suppressing copper prices. On the fundamental side, copper prices remained high, and downstream consumption sentiment weakened. No pre-holiday inventory replenishment orders were seen ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, while imported copper continued to arrive. Overall, the US dollar index surged, suppressing copper prices. However, copper inventories at LME-registered warehouses have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a year. It is expected that copper prices will stop falling and stabilize today.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
14 hours ago
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Read More
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan
14 hours ago
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
14 hours ago
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Read More
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.
14 hours ago
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
14 hours ago
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Read More
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."
14 hours ago