[SMM Tin Midday Review: "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" Effect of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region - SHFE Tin Prices Consolidate at Low Levels, but Spot Cargo Transactions Fall Short of Market Expectations] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) consolidated at low levels, opening at 257,600 yuan/mt, slightly lower than yesterday's closing price of 257,000 yuan/mt. By midday, prices had rebounded slightly but still closed at 257,590 yuan/mt, marking a 1.59% decline. Trading volume surged to 89,600 lots, while open interest increased to 28,500 lots. This market movement was mainly influenced by rumors of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region, coupled with market panic over expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates.

To better serve our customers and enhance the efficiency of the SMM database, we will optimize and adjust the existing classification of the non-ferrous database in June 2025. This adjustment will not involve any changes to the data.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,636.5/mt. It initially rose to a high of $9,645.0/mt, then fluctuated downward.

The market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region. During the night session, SHFE tin prices remained in a low-level sideways trend. [SMM Tin Morning News] Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major supply regions such as Yunnan is tightening. Subsequently, some smelters may halt production for maintenance to address the shortage of raw materials. Yesterday, the market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region. According to SMM, currently, few enterprises are paying fees to apply for mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most major ore traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, inspections at the China-Myanmar border are currently strict, and the customs clearance procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complicated. The current progress of production resumptions in the Wa region is below market expectations. (Bullish ★)

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: SHFE Tin Prices Break Out of Range-bound Trading, Spot Market Sees Brisk Trading]​​Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fell sharply, closing at 257,000 yuan/mt, with a single-day decline of 3.15%, hitting a new low in nearly two weeks. The price fluctuated sharply during the day, reaching a high of 265,500 yuan/mt and a low of 256,800 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 96,332 lots, while open interest increased by 6,604 lots to 28,221 lots, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 367 million yuan. From the perspective of open interest structure, net long positions increased by 1,743 lots to 1,882 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating that bulls' willingness to enter the market was stronger than that of bears...

[SMM Analysis: China's Refined Tin Industry Operation Analysis and Trend Outlook for May 2025]: According to SMM's data based on market exchange processing, in May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% MoM and fell by 11.24% YoY. Due to the continuous tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains, which imposed rigid constraints on capacity, the overall operating rate declined slightly...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Prices Expected to Fluctuate Rangebound within 263,000-268,000 yuan/mt amid Weak Supply and Demand]​​This morning, the SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued its recent sideways movement, opening at 264,310 yuan/mt. It fluctuated rangebound during the session, reaching a high of 265,300 yuan/mt and a low of 263,700 yuan/mt, before closing at 264,040 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.43%. Market trading remained sluggish, with open interest further decreasing to 85.15 million lots. Both long and short positions remained locked in a stalemate near 264,000 yuan/mt.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,583.0/mt, touching a low of $9,571.0/mt at the beginning of the session.

Japan has proposed to purchase billions of US dollars' worth of US semiconductor products. The night session price of SHFE tin remained in the doldrums [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) Japan has proposed to purchase billions of US dollars' worth of US semiconductor products. The Japanese government will provide subsidies to domestic companies acquiring chips from companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA.O) to support chip purchases totaling hundreds of billions to 1 trillion yen. (Bullish ★) (2) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to April, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 2,117.02 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY. (Bullish ★) (3) The 6th-generation new-type semiconductor display device production line built by BOE Technology Group has entered full-scale mass production in Beijing. This marks another breakthrough for China in the high-end display sector, injecting strong momentum into the development of the semiconductor display industry. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariff situation: ① Trump expressed great satisfaction with imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, and the EU has called for the prompt determination of a negotiation date. ② Hassett: US tariffs on certain countries may be reduced to 10% or lower. The tariff reduction will apply to countries that offer favorable conditions. ③ European Council: EU countries have agreed to exempt most enterprises from carbon border tariffs. ④ Brazil extends the duration and expands the scope of trade protection measures for the steel industry. (Neutral)