SMM Copper Morning Briefing: Tariff Negotiations, African Mine Suspension Impact Prices

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 55,500 mt, down 11,000 mt WoW from Monday this week; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 3,200 mt WoW, with inventory trends in the two east China regions clearly diverging. The rapid destocking in Shanghai was driven on one hand by the pullback in copper prices and spot premiums in the previous trading session, which released some dip-buying from downstream buyers and led to solid spot warehouse withdrawals; on the other hand, arrivals remained relatively limited recently, further pushing Shanghai inventory lower. Jiangsu, by contrast, saw inventory buildup due to concentrated arrivals from some smelters. On the demand side, buying picked up after yesterday's copper price pullback, but intraday consumption enthusiasm has already cooled, with downstream buyers returning to just-in-time procurement and remaining limited in their acceptance of current premiums. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between the front and next month contracts remains at a relatively high level, and suppliers' rollover and shipment pace will remain a key variable affecting spot premiums. Overall, low inventory and limited arrivals in Shanghai provide some support to spot prices, but insufficient demand sustainability still caps premium upside. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain rangebound tomorrow, with the center possibly edging slightly lower, though room for a further sharp decline is relatively limited. Going forward, the key focus will be on changes in the backwardation structure between the front and next month contracts.

Shandong copper cathode: Copper prices stayed high and downstream demand was in the traditional off-season, leaving overall market trading sluggish during the week. As of Thursday, spot was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt.