Comparison of Aluminum Wheel Exports in March-April: Calm on the Surface, but Hidden Complexities Behind? [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, March 30, 2025:

According to customs data, China exported a total of 155,300 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs from January to February 2025, representing a slight YoY increase of 1%. In January 2025 alone, China exported 88,800 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs, a significant MoM increase of 17.6% from December 2024. Notably, the export volume of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in January this year reached a new high since January 2022, with a steady but small YoY increase from the 88,100 mt exported in January last year. SMM believes this is closely related to the "front-loading of exports" behavior amid expectations of tariff hikes. In February 2025, China exported 6,650 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs, a sharp MoM decrease of 25.1% from January, but still showing a steady but small MoM increase from the 65,700 mt exported in the same period last year.

SMM's aluminum market research indicates that from January to February 2024, China's aluminum alloy wheel hub export pattern continued to exhibit the traditional market distribution characteristics, with the US, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Thailand continuing to dominate the main export shares, with a combined export volume of 117,600 mt, accounting for a core proportion of 75.7% of the total exports. It is worth noting that amid expectations of the Trump administration resuming power in 2025, the North American market has become the main battleground for "front-loading of exports" in the industry. The monthly export share to the US has consistently exceeded the 30% threshold, with a MoM surge of 21% in January exports and an even higher share climbing to 37% in February. In contrast, the market share of Japan has mildly pulled back to below 20%, while the market shares of South Korea and Mexico have remained in the 10% range, and the Thai market has stabilized at the 5% benchmark.

Market monitoring reveals that Mexico regained its position as the third-largest export destination since December 2023, with a 16% MoM increase in exports to Mexico in January. SMM's in-depth survey indicates that this phenomenon is closely related to inter-country trade arbitrage in North America—a large number of aluminum wheels produced in China are assembled in Mexico and then enter the US market in the form of complete vehicles to circumvent tariff barriers. However, influenced by the Trump team's repeated fluctuations in tariff policies towards neighboring countries, the export shares of the Mexican and Canadian markets both experienced marginal contractions in February 2024, demonstrating the immediate transmission effect of policy uncertainty.

Despite the rebound in the industry's export volume at the end of 2024 and the recent high reached in January 2025, SMM emphasizes that this sporadic growth is essentially a preemptive shipping behavior driven by tariff and trade wars. Data shows that the concentration ratio of the top three export markets has exceeded the 60% warning line, increasing by more than 10 percentage points from the historical average, exposing a severe risk of market structure imbalance. Although top-tier enterprises have initiated diversification strategies to mitigate risks through emerging market expansion, localized capacity transfer, and domestic demand channel development, considering the accelerated deterioration of the international trade environment, SMM expects that aluminum wheel exports will enter a period of deep adjustment in H1 2025, with overall exports likely to show a downward trend. The YoY decline may exceed market expectations, and the industry's pain period could persist until the new tariff system becomes clear.

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