As the aftermath of the trade war lingers, the import pattern of secondary copper in China is accelerating its restructuring

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) indicates that in April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap showed a trend of "MoM recovery but YoY contraction," with monthly imports reaching 204,700 mt, up 7.92% MoM but down 9.46% YoY. From January to April, cumulative imports totaled 777,000 mt, a slight YoY decrease of 0.81% (HS code 74040000).

I. Drastic Changes in Regional Patterns: A "Three-Kingdom" Scenario Among the US, Japan, and Thailand
From the perspective of import sources, there has been a significant shift in the current structure of import sources, with the traditional dominant player, the US, continuing to cede market share. Data from March to April shows that US copper scrap exports to China exhibited characteristics of "double declines": In March, exports reached 22,500 mt (down 28.41% MoM and 51.51% YoY), with its market share in China dropping to 11.85% and its ranking falling to second place. In April, although exports increased slightly by 4.98% MoM to 23,600 mt, they still fell sharply by 43.98% YoY, with its market share further shrinking to 11.52% and its ranking being overtaken by Thailand, slipping to third place.

In stark contrast, there has been a strong rise in the Asian supply chain. Japan's exports to China reached 32,700 mt in April, up 21.02% MoM and 13.78% YoY against the trend, maintaining its top position with a 15.96% share. Additionally, in the Thai market, exports for the month reached 25,000 mt, surging 26.9% MoM and 60.98% YoY, propelling Thailand to the second-largest supplier. The synergy within the Asian regional supply chain is becoming increasingly prominent.

II. Aggravation of Structural Shortages, Dual Pressures from Policy and Market
Looking ahead, according to SMM, the current supply of secondary copper raw materials in the market remains extremely tight, with both domestic and imported sources experiencing shortages. Despite the continued existence of market demand, many traders are actively seeking ways to import secondary copper raw materials, but overseas offers are scarce, making it difficult to achieve large-scale purchases. Furthermore, influenced by Trump's tariff policies, traders generally reject US sources, which are more likely to be absorbed in local markets such as Japan and Thailand. In the coming months, imports are expected to maintain a trend of "declining volumes but rising prices," with the market shares of Japan and Thailand expected to exceed 18% and 14%, respectively, while the US share may fall below the psychological threshold of 10%.