Breaking Through the $3,300 Mark! Geopolitical Risks Boost Gold Prices Again, Chifeng Gold Surges Over 7%, Leading the Way

Driven by multiple positive factors, most Hong Kong-listed gold stocks strengthened. As of press time, Qomolangma Gold (01815.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 13.22%, 7.60%, 7%, and 6.59%, respectively.

Note: Performance of gold stocks

On the news front, the UK, France, and Canada jointly pressured Israel to pause its military operations in Gaza, with the UK announcing the suspension of trade agreement negotiations with Israel. Additionally, reports indicated that US intelligence had discovered that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The escalating geopolitical tensions directly stimulated market risk-averse sentiment.

Currently, COMEX gold prices have broken through the $3,300 mark, rising 0.68% as of press time, to trade at $3,335.

Note: Performance of COMEX gold

In addition to the above news, the fundamentals of gold are strongly supported.

Surge in China's imports: In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 mt, surging 73% MoM, hitting an 11-month high, reflecting robust domestic investment and consumer demand.

Global central banks' gold purchases continue: The World Gold Council pointed out that in April, the Shanghai gold price denominated in RMB rose by 6.9%, the highest for the same period in nearly 19 years. Central banks' continuous gold purchases provide support for long-term prices.

How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices?

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team maintained its forecast targets of $3,700/oz for gold prices by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This judgment is based on two core factors: The combined impact of the US Fed's delayed interest rate cut and the decreased probability of an economic recession (the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling from 45% to 35%) on the 2026 target price is only $15/oz, with the terminal interest rate expectation still anchored at 3.5%-3.75%; the mild shift of private sector asset allocation towards gold offsets the slight negative impact of improved cyclical macroeconomic conditions.

Founder Securities believes that the current gold price is already at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, with the recent easing of external events such as the trade war, it may trigger some investors to take profits at high levels or central banks to slow down their gold purchases in the short term, leading to a phased correction in gold prices. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar credit, the initiation of the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and the continuous increase in gold purchases by global central banks, gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend after short-term adjustments.