According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total imports of copper cathode reached 249,991 mt in April, down 19.06% MoM and 11.97% YoY. In March, China imported 308,800 mt of copper cathode, with the unexpectedly high volume mainly coming from Russia at 67,900 mt. The decline in April's imports was also primarily reflected in imports from Russia, which amounted to only 19,500 mt.
Despite Trump's continued tariff hikes in April, the US continued to attract global copper cathode, with flows from Chile, Peru, and other countries heading to the US. It was observed that the volume of copper cathode flowing from the DRC to the US continued to increase. Since 2020, with the rise in copper cathode production in the DRC, the volume of copper cathode imported by the US from the DRC has also increased after 2023. In March, the US imported a total of 123,000 mt of copper cathode, with imports from the DRC reaching a record high of 8,700 mt. Continuous attention will be paid to the flow of copper cathode from the DRC to the US and whether it will divert volumes from China.
From a price perspective, due to the low arrivals of EQ copper cathode in April, the domestic trade prices of EQ copper cathode also rose. Amid tight supplies of secondary copper, EQ and non-standard supplies were highly favoured by downstream users, and the price spread between EQ copper cathode and SX-EW copper also narrowed significantly.
Looking ahead to May, the current outlook suggests that EQ copper cathode prices in the domestic market remain firm, with limited concentrated arrivals. The price spread between SX-EW copper and EQ copper cathode continues to narrow. SMM expects copper cathode imports to reach nearly 300,000 mt in May, but this includes copper cathode withdrawn from LME Asian warehouses, making it unlikely that the proportion of EQ imports will increase significantly.
