[SMM HRC Daily Review] Trading Logic Returns to Fundamentals, with the Most-Traded HRC Futures Contract Fluctuating Rangebound
Today, the most-traded HRC futures contract held up well, closing at 3211, up 0.16%. In the spot market, prices remained stable during the day, with overall trading performance improving. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production this week was 274,200 mt, up 63,200 mt WoW. Short-term supply pressure is expected to continue to slow down. In terms of demand, end-use demand remains resilient in the short term, with inventory in major cities continuing to decline. On the cost side, pig iron output is expected to decrease but will remain at a high level, with cost support remaining firm. In summary, the imbalance in HRC fundamentals is not yet apparent. Recently, the futures market has been weak, and the release of end-use demand has shown slight signs of fatigue, with both supply and demand weakening. In the short term, the most-traded HRC futures contract may fluctuate rangebound at its current level, and the strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged.