[SMM Research]Sustained Profits Boost Production Momentum: Construction Steel Mills Maintain High Output!

According to SMM research, the maintenance impact volume of construction steel products during this week (May 17–23) continued to increase slightly. Steel mills initiated scheduled maintenance on blast furnaces and rebar rolling lines this week, with the total maintenance impact volume reaching 1.1378 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons.

Influenced by news of eased China-US trade tariffs, both raw material and finished product prices rose to varying degrees last week. Current blast furnace hot metal production remains at elevated levels, providing strong demand support for raw materials such as iron ore and coke. However, terminal demand for finished products has gradually weakened, leading to raw materials generally outperforming finished products. Although the profit margin for rebar production has narrowed slightly, it still maintains a profit of around 100 yuan per ton, keeping steel mills highly motivated in production. SMM surveys show that some steel mills in the northwestern region postponed the start time of rebar rolling line maintenance, while those in the southwestern region advanced the resumption time of blast furnace maintenance after repairs. Nevertheless, considering that steel mills in the northeastern and eastern regions continued with scheduled routine maintenance on blast furnaces and rolling lines this week, the total maintenance volume for construction steel increased slightly.

Looking ahead, as the hype around China-US trade news fades this week, the market has returned to focusing on fundamentals. The latest data shows that operational indicators in the terminal real estate industry are in a depressed state. Coupled with increased rainy weather in southern regions affecting construction progress, overall demand for building materials lacks resilience, and market wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Spot market prices are expected to be under pressure this week, but manufacturers currently have a strong willingness to hold prices, limiting the downside space for prices. In the short term, the degree of rebar profit contraction will remain in a mild range, and steel mills have low willingness to actively reduce production. Some steel mills are still scheduled to resume production next week, with the maintenance impact volume for construction steel expected to decline to 1.1088 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 29,000 tons.