Macro Concerns and Trade Policies Hinder Copper Price Rebound

Published: May 19, 2025 08:39
[Macro concerns weigh on copper price rebound, with LME copper and SHFE copper both closing lower:] On the macro side, the latest round of economic data showed that import prices rebounded in April, while consumer confidence remained sluggish in May. Amid growing concerns about the impact of President Trump's trade policies, the US dollar index first fell and then rose, while copper prices first rose and then fell. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on Sunday that if countries fail to reach a trade agreement within the 90-day tariff suspension period, tariff rates will soon revert to "reciprocal" levels. On the fundamental side, the SHFE copper 2506 contract officially traded intraday last Friday. Overstocked warrants in warehouses led to tight spot cargo availability, with suppliers maintaining firm quotes. There were significant differences in premiums for different copper grades. This week, the outflow of warrants may suppress premiums, but expectations of downstream purchases at lower prices may boost transaction volumes, with bullish and bearish factors coexisting. In terms of prices, it is expected that there will still be room for contention above today's copper prices.

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