[SMM Coke & Coal Analysis] Coking enterprises maintained a relatively high operating rate, but the pressure to ship goods increased

1. According to the SMM survey, the profit per tonne of coke was 28 yuan/mt this week, showing a significant decline.

According to the SMM survey, the profit per tonne of coke declined significantly this week, mainly due to price reductions.

The coke market as a whole exhibited a weakening trend this week, with some steel mills lowering coke prices, putting pressure on coke producers' profits. Despite high production enthusiasm among coke producers, weak market demand and cautious procurement strategies by steel mills further impacted the profitability of coke producers.

Looking ahead, with the arrival of the off-season and an increasing number of blast furnace maintenance activities, pig iron production is expected to peak. Coupled with relatively high coke inventory levels at steel mills, the coke market is expected to remain weak in the short term, potentially further squeezing coke producers' profits.

2. According to the SMM survey, the coke oven capacity utilisation rate was 76.1% this week, up 0.15 percentage points WoW. In Shanxi, the coke oven capacity utilisation rate was 76.7%, up 0.2 percentage points WoW.

According to the SMM survey, the coke oven capacity utilisation rate showed an overall upward trend this week, increasing WoW. In Shanxi, the coke oven capacity utilisation rate also increased, showing a significant rise WoW.

From a market perspective, coke producers' production profits were moderate, and operating enthusiasm was high, with coke supply remaining at a high level. Some coke producers experienced a slowdown in shipment pace, resulting in certain inventory pressure. On the demand side, steel mills' coke inventory levels were in the mid-to-high range, with weak restocking demand. Additionally, with the arrival of the off-season and an increasing number of blast furnace maintenance activities, some steel mills slowed down their procurement pace, primarily purchasing as needed. In summary, coke producers' operating rates remained at a relatively high level, but shipment pressure increased.

Looking ahead, based on the coke oven capacity utilisation rate of coke producers this week, it is expected that the coke oven capacity utilisation rate may decline next week. Market expectations have turned pessimistic, coupled with relatively high coke inventory levels at steel mills and increased expectations for raw material price reductions, the coke market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

3. This week, coke producers' coke inventory was 309,000 mt, up 24,000 mt or 8.4% WoW. Steel mills' coke inventory was 2.675 million mt, down 33,000 mt or 1.2% WoW. Port coke inventory was 1.48 million mt, down 40,000 mt or 2.6% WoW. Coke producers' coking coal inventory was 2.628 million mt, down 31,000 mt or 1.2% WoW.

This week, coke producers' coke inventory was 309,000 mt, an increase of 24,000 mt or 8.4% WoW. Coke producers' coking coal inventory was 2.628 million mt, a decrease of 31,000 mt or 1.2% WoW. Steel mills' coke inventory was 2.675 million mt, a decrease of 33,000 mt or 1.2% WoW. Coke inventory at the two ports stood at 1.48 million mt, down 40,000 mt WoW, a decrease of 2.6%.

This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises remained at a high level. Although coke inventory at coking enterprises increased somewhat, it remained at a low level overall. On the raw material side, coking coal inventory at coking enterprises declined slightly, with relatively loose supply. For steel mills, coke inventory at steel mills decreased slightly but remained at a medium-to-high level, with a cautious procurement strategy.

Looking ahead, the operating rate and demand situation of steel mills will influence the inventory changes of coke at steel mills next week. It is expected that with an increase in blast furnace maintenance, coke inventory at steel mills may continue to remain high. On the raw material side, coking enterprises have a high production enthusiasm, while market demand is average. Coupled with the cautious procurement strategy of steel mills, coking coal inventory at coking enterprises may continue to face pressure. In terms of port inventory, coking enterprises are actively shipping, and the market supply-demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is expected that coke inventory at ports will maintain the current level.