The spot market exhibits a pattern of low inventory and high premium, coupled with low operating rates at the smelting end limiting price declines [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506) on May 16, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) experienced a slight fluctuation and pullback. It opened at 265,000 yuan/mt, with narrowed intraday fluctuations and a fluctuating downward trend. By midday, it closed near 264,860 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.20% from the previous day. Open interest decreased slightly to 28,900 lots, with market trading activity being moderately weak, and short-term capital showing signs of profit-taking exits.

​​​​Sluggish Spot Transactions​​: The transaction price of tin ingots fluctuated around 265,000 yuan/mt. High-priced resources lacked sufficient liquidity, with downstream solder and electronics enterprises only making just-in-time procurement. Low inventory supported price resilience​​, with LME inventory remaining at a low level. The "low inventory + high backwardation" structure in the spot market provided a floor for tin prices.

​​​​Upside Resistance​​: The expected production resumptions at the Bisie mine and the recovery of Myanmar's supply have dampened speculative sentiment. Coupled with weak traditional demand from end-users, tin prices lack the momentum to break through the 60-day moving average (around 268,000 yuan/mt).

​​​​Downside Support​​: Low inventory and the short-term low operating rate at the smelting end limit the decline, with buying support existing in the 260,000-262,000 yuan/mt range.