[SMM Analysis:The mid-year negotiations are approaching, and the imbalanced supply-demand structure of copper concentrate will have far-reaching impacts ] Antofagasta’s mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are imminent, during which Antofagasta will launch negotiations with smelters. From the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

[SMM Analysis: Mid-Year Negotiations Approaching, Profound Impact of Imbalanced Copper Concentrates Supply and Demand Structure] Antofagasta's mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are approaching, and Antofagasta will commence mid-year negotiations with the smelters. Judging from the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

[SMM Analysis] May 15 was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2505 contract, and the spot market basically started quoting prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract. As the price spread between futures contracts mainly fluctuated within BACK 420-450 yuan/mt on the last trading day, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract were at a premium of 400-450 yuan/mt. As the delivery of the SHFE copper 2505 contract approached, the open interest corresponding to the delivery volume was originally vastly different from the existing delivery warrants. On May 14, amid favourable macro front, the fundamentals of SHFE copper also provided support, with prices surging above 79,500 yuan/mt during this period. Subsequently, selling orders increased in the futures / futures market, erasing the gains.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 16 May, 2025

On the afternoon of May 12, the day after the conclusion of the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, both sides issued the "Joint Statement on the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", reaching a consensus to mutually suspend the 24% tariffs for 90 days while maintaining the 10% tariffs. Secondly, they simultaneously revoked two executive orders imposing additional tariffs, including Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266 signed by the Trump administration on April 8 and 9, respectively. China also announced in response the cancellation of the additional tax measures against the US, as outlined in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 by the Customs Tariff Commission, which means the cancellation of the 91% additional tariffs imposed as a countermeasure on US goods. With the easing of Sino-US tariff policies, how has the export market for copper cathode rods responded? Has there been a rush in exports? Below is a detailed analysis:

[SMM Analysis: Sales Losses Persist, Finished Product Inventories Increase] According to SMM's survey data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod this week was 21.17%, up 0.13 percentage point WoW and down 1.9 percentage point YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod this week was 1,166 yuan/mt, narrowing by 102 yuan/mt WoW. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 625 yuan/mt, widening by 121 yuan/mt WoW...