How is the Domestic Performance of Galvanized Sheet in the Traditional Peak Season Amid Tariff Disruptions?[SMM Analysis]

SMM May 15 News:

The "Golden March, Silver April" period typically marks the traditional consumption season for galvanized sheet. However, this year, the Sino-US trade conflict has reignited, with tariff changes affecting market sentiment and causing renewed disruptions in export orders. Amid these multiple factors, according to SMM statistics, the operating rates of galvanized sheet production in March and April remained relatively high, showing no significant YoY pullback. What are the specifics？

Domestic Trade Orders Perspective:

• Construction Sheet: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in newly started construction area for real estate was 24.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in completed construction area was 14.3%. The demand for related steel products continued to slow down YoY. Although construction projects largely resumed in March and April, the decline in end-use demand resulted in galvanized sheet orders still falling short of previous years' levels.

• Home Appliance Sheet: Summer is the traditional sales promotion season for the three major white goods. Coupled with policies such as national subsidies continuing to boost consumption this year, it has brought a traditional stockpiling peak season for galvanized sheet manufacturers in the home appliance sector, lasting roughly two months in March and April. Orders for related home appliance sheets have been robust.

• Automotive Sheet: According to CAAM data on a YoY basis, from January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.9% and 10.80% YoY, respectively. The automotive sector continued to grow rapidly compared to last year, and the improvement in end-use demand brought a large number of orders for related galvanized sheets. The operating rates of galvanized sheet manufacturers remained high in March and April.

Export Orders Perspective:

This year, the Sino-US tariff conflict has escalated continuously. To avoid high tariff rates, some enterprises in Southeast Asia began placing orders for galvanized sheets in China in advance starting in March, with "rush exports" gradually emerging. Additionally, starting in April, China has tightened scrutiny on export orders, prompting some affected export sheet manufacturers to rush to meet deadlines and plan to ship before May, maintaining relatively high operating rates. Combining these two factors, domestic galvanized sheet export orders have been robust in March and April. However, there are concerns about some consumption being brought forward, leading to market worries about subsequent export orders.

Overall, driven by export orders, the operating rates during this year's "Golden March, Silver April" period remained relatively good, but there was no significant outperformance. Entering May, some enterprises reported a decline in domestic trade orders. However, export production schedules for May can still be maintained. Coupled with the recent announcement of tariff negotiation results between China and the US, which saw a significant reduction in tariff rates and the reappearance of a 90-day suspension period, SMM will continue to monitor whether a new round of "rush exports" will emerge.