New alumina capacity additions cannot conceal maintenance work in multiple regions; short-term alumina operating capacity may remain volatile [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 15

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,960 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,988 yuan/mt, a low of 2,943 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,979 yuan/mt, up 34 yuan/mt or 1.15%, with an open interest of 328,000 lots.

Ore: As of May 14, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $70.46/mt, down $0.32/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, down $5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, down $2/mt from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

(1) Overseas alumina transactions: On May 14, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $387.14/mt CIF Indonesia, with Western Australian origin and a shipment schedule in late June.

(2) Overseas alumina transactions: On May 14, 25,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $351/mt FOB Vietnam, with a shipment schedule in late June.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on May 14, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 38 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report: On May 14, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 1,199 mt from the previous trading day to 209,800 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in the Henan region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 15,600 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in the Gansu region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 6,306 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in the Xinjiang region decreased by 1,199 mt from the previous trading day to 184,300 mt.

Overseas Market: As of May 14, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $359/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.80/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.23. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,175 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 259.43 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary:

Last week, there were both increases and decreases in the operating capacity of alumina enterprises, with a slight overall decrease of 80,000 mt/year in total operating capacity. It is expected that some alumina enterprises will conduct maintenance in the following period, while new alumina capacity is expected to continue to be commissioned and released. In the short term, the operating capacity of alumina may fluctuate. Recently, downstream feedback indicates that spot cargo supplies are tight in some regions. With suppliers standing firm on quotes, spot prices may rebound slightly. However, on the cost side, bauxite prices have fallen significantly compared to the previous period, weakening the cost support. Overall, the alumina market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]